From Pandemic to Energy Crisis: Economy and Politics under Stress (Joint Economic Forecast, Spring 2022) — Stefan Kooths

Sprecher

Stefan Kooths (Kiel Institute)

Abstract

The German economy is steering through difficult waters and faces the highest inflation rates in decades. In their spring report (published on April 13), the leading German economic research institutes revise their outlook for this year significantly downward. The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is slowing down as a result of the war in Ukraine, but remains on track. The institutes expect GDP to increase by 2.7 and 3.1 percent in 2022 and 2023 respectively. In the event of an immediate interruption to Russian gas supplies, a total of 220 billion euros in German economic output would be at risk in both years. Stefan Kooths reports on the most recent forecasting exercise (hosted by the Kiel Institute) and presents highlights in terms of research questions and results.

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