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According to the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany's gross domestic product declines by 0.6% in 2023. This is a strong downward revision of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast made in spring 2023. "The most important reason for this revision is that industry and private consumption are recovering more slowly than we expected in spring," says Oliver Holtemöller, Vice President and Head of the Macroeconomics Department at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

A comparison of apartment price trends by year of construction in Germany's largest cities reveals a notable pattern: While prices for new buildings have experienced a relatively modest decline from their peak, the value of existing properties has fallen by more than twice as much. This finding comes from a comprehensive data analysis conducted by the German Real Estate Index (Greix), a project of ECONtribute and the Kiel Institute. In cooperation with local real estate expert committees, transaction prices of German residential real estate are tracked using state-of-the-art scientific methods. All data for 18 German cities and their suburbs are freely available at www.greix.de.

A brief overview of the market size in Niger, employment statistics in Gabon, and the share of electricity from renewable sources in Morocco: The Kiel Institute’s Africa Monitor is your go-to tool for tracking macroeconomic trends across the continent. The Monitor collates data from public sources and ensures it is always up to date. Its detailed filtering system facilitates precise data searches and tailored visualization. The Africa Monitor will officially be launched at today’s conference “Shaping Africa’s Future: Geopolitics. Business. Sustainability” in Berlin.

In August, global trade shows a clear countermovement to the weak summer months. The values of the Kiel Trade Indicator for global trade and also for the trade of major economies are all positive and, in some cases, show significant increases compared with the previous month of July (adjusted for price and seasonal effects). In Russia's ports, the number of container ships arriving is surging and, despite sanctions and a weak ruble, is almost at the level seen before the outbreak of the war. The congestion off the Panama Canal has only minor importance for global goods trade.

Europe has clearly overtaken the United States in promised aid to Ukraine, with total European commitments now being twice as large. A main reason is the EU’s new €50 billion “Ukraine Facility,” but also other European countries have upped their support with new multi-year packages. For the first time since the start of the war, the US is now clearly lagging behind. This is one of the results of the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker.

According to the latest forecast by the Kiel Institute, the outlook for the German economy has clouded over. Gross domestic product is expected to shrink by 0.5 percent this year, implying a slight downward revision compared to the summer forecast (-0.3 percent). The main reasons for this are weak industrial activity, the crisis in the construction sector and weak consumer spending. For 2024, the Kiel Institute now expects growth of 1.3 percent (previously +1.8 percent) and for 2025, 1.5 percent. Inflation is expected to fall significantly to 2.1 percent in 2024 and 2025. Despite the downturn, the labor market is robust and public debt remains roughly constant.

According to the latest data update of the Kiel Trade Indicator, world trade was slightly positive in June, supported primarily by China's trade (month-on-month comparison, price and seasonally adjusted). The country is increasingly freeing itself from last winter's trade trough and exported more goods in March, measured in current prices, than any country ever before. Germany and the EU, on the other hand, are continuing their weak phase of recent months, but the gloomy picture from the beginning of the month is not confirmed. The low water level in the Panama Canal is making itself felt again in the form of increasing shipping congestion at ports.

The downward trend for real estate prices in Germany was partially halted in the second quarter of 2023. Compared with the first quarter of 2023, many prices are even rising slightly again, although there is still a significant drop compared with the previous year and the peaks. This is shown by the latest update of the German Real Estate Index (GREIX), a project of ECONtribute and the Kiel Institute, which tracks the development of German real estate prices using the latest scientific methodology. All data for currently 18 German cities and their districts is freely available at www.greix.de

Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute, comments on the European Central Bank's decision today to raise key interest rates by a further 0.25 basis points:

Dr. Katrin Kamin, expert on geo-economic issues and deputy director of the Trade Policy Research Center at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, comments on the German government's China strategy presented today:

In this Kiel Focus, Frank Bickenbach and Wan-Hsin Liu analyze the economic challenges facing China and how the country plans to respond to them.

Despite some larger support packages, the total amount of new bilateral support commitments to Ukraine by other countries has been low in spring 2023 compared to previous periods. Most of the new pledges were military aid. However, despite the Ukrainian offensive, new pledges are not as large as at the beginning of the year, and military equipment deliveries are well below commitments. This is the result of the latest data analysis of the Ukraine Support Tracker.

According to the latest data update of the Kiel Trade Indicator, world trade was slightly positive in June, supported primarily by China's trade (month-on-month comparison, price and seasonally adjusted). The country is increasingly freeing itself from last winter's trade trough and exported more goods in March, measured in current prices, than any country ever before. Germany and the EU, on the other hand, are continuing their weak phase of recent months, but the gloomy picture from the beginning of the month is not confirmed. The low water level in the Panama Canal is making itself felt again in the form of increasing shipping congestion at ports.

The review of 2022 from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy with insights in our work of reseach, consulting, outreach and education.

According to the latest data update of the Kiel Trade Indicator for the current month of June, a gloomy picture is emerging for Germany's and the EU's exports (month-on-month comparison, price and seasonally adjusted). Imports by the two economies and also U.S. trade are expected to decline, but not as significantly. The figure for China's considerably fluctuating exports is up, and for imports it is zero. Overall global trade is expected to show sideways movement in June.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy and its partners, the state capital Kiel and the Schleswig-Holstein Chamber of Commerce and Industry, awarded the Global Economy Prize for the 18th time across the three categories politics, business, and economics today at the Kiel State House. This year, the prize went to personalities who have rendered outstanding services to the future of Africa.

Economic output in Germany is set to decline in 2023. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy expects a year-on-year decline of 0.3 percent, significantly downgrading its spring forecast (+0.5 percent). The main reason for this is the weak winter half-year. However, moderate expansion is expected for the rest of the year. For 2024, the Kiel Institute now expects growth of 1.8 percent (previously +1.4 percent). Inflation is expected to fall significantly over the course of the year and only amounts 2.1 percent in 2024.

A new four-year Horizon Europe project has been initiated to investigate the feasibility of storing CO2 in the ocean. It aims to determine whether this method is environmentally safe, socially acceptable, and economically viable. The oceans hold significant potential as enhanced sinks for atmospheric CO2, contributing to global climate targets. Within the project, the Kiel Institute will address the question of how actual CDR (carbon dioxide removal)-based methods could be implemented and integrated into climate policy.