Economic outlook

German GDP is expected to slump between 4.5 and 9 percent in 2020

The Kiel Institute based its calculations on two scenarios: A six-week lockdown and a three months longer lockdown. In both scenarios the slump in GDP is considerable, followed by a strong rebound next year.

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(C)Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Compared to the spring forecast of the Kiel Institute a week ago, the economic situation has worsened dramatically weighing...

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy sees the uncertainty about actual coronavirus case numbers as a major problem for...

As a consequence of the corona virus, the Kiel Institute expects a severe economic slump, followed by a strong rebound. GDP in...

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Rainer Thiele - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) / Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and...

A stop to climate change and a move away from fossil fuels will lead to profound changes in society and the lifestyles of...

Millions of refugees would like to come to Europe, especially Germany. How can these people be integrated? What are the...

Colorful international flags in a blue sky. — © "International Flags" by Penn State, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Young woman who is carrying a basket on her head walks through green fields. — © "Africa’s economy rebounds strongly, but jobs remain elusive" by Africa Renewal, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

Stock market chart background — © iStock.com/honglouwawa

Colorful, international flags in front of the Kiel Institute. — © IfW Kiel / Michael Stefan

Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Vincent Stamer

We provide a calculation tool to assess the properties of a maximumlikelihood (ML) estimator that extrapolates the true prevalence of...

Wolfgang Lechthaler, Patrick Ring

How the provision of unemployment benefits affects employment and unemployment is a debated issue. In this paper, we aim at...

Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, Tobias Stöhr

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We...

Journal Article

The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets

accepted for publication in The Review of Economics and Statistics

03/2020

Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, Tobias Stöhr

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We...

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..."Dramatic declines in global growth have to be expected",the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, an influential German research...

Sonja Peterson assesses the German government's climate package.

Reference to a new study by Holger Görg, which shows that in the current trade war between the USA and China, the rocking up of...

A new study by Holger Görg shows that in the current trade war between the USA and China also makes goods in other countries more...

Gabriel Felbermayr contradicts accusation that China is manipulating the yuan exchange rate.

Jens Boysen-Hogrefe comments on the latest economic outlooks.

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