Kiel Institute Winter Forecasts

Economic Outlooks for 2022 worsened

Supply bottlenecks and the fourth Covid-19 wave are weighing on the economic recovery of Germany and the rest of the world, delaying the catching-up process by several months.

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In contrast to the first major wave of the pandemic, world trade has so far not shown any negative swings in the face of the...

Data update Kiel Trade Indicator: subdued outlook for December. There is a slight easing of congestion off major container...

Kiel Institute Statements - Stefan Kooths

Prof. Dr. Stefan Kooths, Head of Forecasting and Vice President of the Kiel Institute, comments on the appointment of Joachim...

Experts at the Kiel Institute combine scientific research with policy advice on a broad range of global economic issues.

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The Kiel Trade Indicator estimates the expected imports and exports for 75 countries and regions, as well as the worldwide trade in goods in total. The calculation is based on real-time data from container ships in several hundred ports and sea regions, which an algorithm programmed at the Kiel Institute evaluates using artificial intelligence.

Kiel Trade Indicator

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Analyses, simulations and commentaries on all issues related to international trade and trade policy. Among other these are...

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Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and...

A stop to climate change and a move away from fossil fuels will lead to profound changes in society and the lifestyles of...

Research Centers at a Glance

In eight research centers and other cross-cutting initiatives, our scientists investigate the drivers and effects of international economic activity.

Research Centers & Initiatives

Sneha Thube, Ruth Delzeit, Christian Henning

Mitigation of CO2 emissions is a global public good that imposes different regional economic costs. We assess the distributional...

Philipp Herkenhoff, Sebastian Krautheim, Finn Ole Semrau ...

Firms are under increasing pressure to meet stakeholders’ demand for Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) along their global value...

Florian Weinberger, Swantje Sundt, Nadja Staerck ...

Beach visitors rate beach quality in large part by its appearance. Removal of natural beach litter (called beach wrack) has,...

Fynn Kemper, Philipp C. Wichardt

This paper proposes a simple framework to model contextual influences on procedural decision making. In terms of utility, we...

... Tobias Heidland is a professor of economics at Kiel University and the Kiel Institute’s director of international development....

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