In the next two years potential output should grow at the highest rate in more than 15 years. This is the result of the latest medium term projection of the Kiel Institute till 2020. Main driver is a temporary benign demographic effect which, however, dissipate already at the end of the projection horizon.
“Education, Preferences, and Economic Outcomes” will be the topic of the Kiel Institute Summer School 2016. It will be held in the week July 25-30. It includes four days of lectures by well known international researchers, plus two days of participation in the workshop “Social and Biological Roots of Economics“.
Despite to economic headwinds, researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy have revised their forecasts only slightly downward for the period leading up to 2017. They now expect Germany to achieve GDP growth of 2 percent in 2016 (previously 2.2 percent) and 2.2 percent in 2017 (2.3 percent).
The decision of the ECB to increase the dosage of its quantitative easing (QE) programme is increasing the policy risks of QE, while the effectiveness seems to be rather limited. This advice is currently given from the Kiel Institute to the European Parliament within the scope of an advisory mandate.
Full analysis. (Pdf 1,1 MB)
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