War against Ukraine

After decades of military downsizing, German military spending is woefully inadequate to meet the new strategic challenge posed by Russia—as both a new report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the new Kiel Military Procurement Tracker show. In combination with a cumbersome national procurement system and depending on weapon systems it would take Germany as much as a century to bring its military inventory up to the level of 20 years ago. In contrast, Russia is radically increasing its capacity to produce armaments, including advanced systems, and is now in a position to produce as many weapons in six months as all of Germany’s armed forces currently field.

A long-awaited Ukraine supplemental appropriations bill for Ukraine was finally signed into law on April 24, after months of deliberation. At USD 31.5 billion, the funds destined for Ukraine are only about half of the reported USD 61 billion and are significantly lower than the USD 39.5 billion granted in December 2022. The other half is mostly Department of Defense funding for procurement, operations, and maintenance and is not directly attributable as aid for Ukraine. There is still a large discrepancy between air defense equipment provided to Ukraine and the stocks held by the donor states. This is shown in the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker, which tracks aid to Ukraine through April 30, 2024.

New European aid to Ukraine has not shown an uptick in recent months, despite the fact that US aid has come to a complete halt. In January and February 2024, European countries allocated a total of about EUR 6 billion in aid to Ukraine, almost all of it for the military. This is shown in the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker, which tracks aid commitments through February 29, 2024. The European aid in recent months is nowhere near enough to fill the gap left by the lack of US assistance, particularly in the area of ammunition and artillery shells. The new US aid package which passed congress last weekend is therefore crucial, but not yet included in the figures.