International Trade

According to the latest update of the Kiel Trade Indicator, global trade declined in November compared to the previous month of October (price and seasonally adjusted). In line with the weak development, the volume of standard containers shipped has also fallen. German foreign trade in particular is following a sustained period of weakness. Shipping traffic in the Red Sea is well below the volume actually expected, which is primarily due to economic factors. The effects of the conflict in the Middle East are only likely to become apparent in the medium to long term.

After weaknesses in previous months, global trade showed a clear upward trend in October (compared to the month of September, price and seasonally adjusted). Such strong growth was last seen in March. The upturn is also being driven in particular by the member states of the European Union, where economic output has recently contracted slightly. The strong trade figures are therefore a positive sign for growth in the fourth quarter. China's trade, on the other hand, is following the downward pull of a subdued global economy.

Global trade takes a breather in September. Compared with the surprisingly strong August figures, the Kiel Trade Indicator shows a sideways movement (price and seasonally adjusted). The countermovement is quite pronounced for Germany, where imports and exports are in the red. Overall, the container ship network is stable: the volume of goods shipped is high, congestion is declining and freight rates are falling significantly.