Subject Dossier

Economic Outlook

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas

Most recent forecasts

Key indicators

  2017 2018 2019 2020
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 2,2 1,9 2,0 1,9
Gross domestic product, deflator 1,5 1,6 1,9 2,2
Consumer prices 1,7 1,9 2,0 2,0
Labor productivity (per hour worked) 0,9 0,4 1,0 0,8
Employment (1000 persons) 44.269 44.858 45.307 45.636
Unemployment rate (percent) 5,7 5,2 4,9 4,6
in relation to nominal GDP    
Public sector net lending 1,0 1,6 1,1 0,9
Gross public debt 63,9 59,9 56,4 53,5
Current account balance 8,3 8,1 7,7 7,7

GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by the Federal Employment Agency.

Source: Federal Statistical Office, Fachserie 18, Series 1.2; Federal Employment Agency, Monthly Bulletin; Federal Employment Agency, Employment Statistics; shaded: IfW forecast.
  2017 2018 2019 2020
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 2,5 2,1 2,0 1,7
Consumer prices 1,5 1,7 1,7 1,7
Unemployment rate (percent) 9,1 8,3 7,7 7,4
in relation to nominal GDP    
Public sector net lending -0,9 -0,8 -1,0 -1,1
Current account balance 3,5 3,1 2,6 2,4

GDP, consumer prices: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: ILO concept.

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts; European central bank, Monthly Bulletin; shaded: IfW forecast.
Gross domestic product Consumer prices
  2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
United States 2,8 2,4 1,9 1,9 2,2 2,2
Japan 0,9 1,2 1,0 0,9 1,0 1,8
Euro Area 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7
United Kingdom 1,2 1,0 1,0 2,4 2,2 2,0
Advanced economies total 2,3 2,1 1,8 2,0 1,9 1,9
China 6,6 6,1 5,8 2,1 2,3 2,3
Latin America 1,3 1,7 2,3 5,9 5,0 4,4
India 7,4 7,8 7,0 4,9 4,8 5,0
East Asia 5,1 4,7 4,6 3,0 3,4 3,4
Russia 1,9 1,6 1,5 3,7 3,1 4,0
World economy total 3,8 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,3 3,4
             
Addendum: World trade volume 4,6 3,2 3,0 . . .
Oil price (Brent in US-$) 73,5 78,9 80,4 . . .
World economy total (weighted according to GDP at market exchange rates) 3,2 3,0 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,9

Weighted according to GDP at PPP rates. — East Asia: Emerging Asia excluding China and India. — Shaded: IfW forecast.

Source: Forecast of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Selcted Publications

All Business Cycle Forecasts

Economic Outlook

Germany’s boom is maturing

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
09/2018

The economic upswing in Germany continues, although the expansion loses some steam. Compared to our summer forecast, we reduced our expectations for GDP growth by 0.1 and...

Economic Outlook

German economy closer to its limit

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
03/2018

Die Luft für den Aufschwung in Deutschland wird dünner. Nach dem kräftigen Anstieg von 2,2 Prozent im Jahr 2017 dürfte sich die gesamtwirtschaftlich ...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area economy loses steam

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2018

The Euro area economy has lost momentum in the first half of 2018. The slowdown was due to country-specific temporary factors and a weakness of world trade since the...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area: Improved Outlook in Spite of Uncertainties

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2017

The economic recovery in the euro area remains moderate. While several sentiment indicators have improved considerably over the past few months, and the ...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area: Uncertainty weighs temporarily on recovery

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2016

Economic Recovery in the Euro Area has lost momentum in the second half of 2015. Due to dampening effects from the world economy and a marked increase i ...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area: Moderate Recovery proceeds

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2015

Economic activity in the Euro Area is gradually gaining grip in 2015. Sentiment indicators suggest that the current - rather moderate - recovery will pr ...

Economic Outlook

World economic momentum peaks

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
03/2018

At the start of 2018 the global economy is in full swing. On a PPP-basis growth in 2017 was 3.9 percent, the highest rate since 2011. While leading indicators point to...

Economic Outlook

World economic upswing continues

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
12/2017

The world economy is currently expanding strongly with upward momentum in almost every major economy. Global activity is set to expand by 3.8 percent, 0 ...

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