Economic Outlook

According to the latest update of the Kiel Trade Indicator, global trade declined in November compared to the previous month of October (price and seasonally adjusted). In line with the weak development, the volume of standard containers shipped has also fallen. German foreign trade in particular is following a sustained period of weakness. Shipping traffic in the Red Sea is well below the volume actually expected, which is primarily due to economic factors. The effects of the conflict in the Middle East are only likely to become apparent in the medium to long term.

In the third quarter of 2023, residential property prices in Germany have fallen, in some cases significantly. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, all housing segments have become cheaper, although there are strong regional differences and outliers. Among the major cities, prices are most stable in Cologne and Berlin. The number of property transactions has fallen significantly. This is shown by the latest update of the German Real Estate Index (GREIX), a project of ECONtribute and the Kiel Institute, which tracks the development of German real estate prices using the latest scientific methodology. All data for currently 18 German cities and their districts is freely available at www.greix.de.

After weaknesses in previous months, global trade showed a clear upward trend in October (compared to the month of September, price and seasonally adjusted). Such strong growth was last seen in March. The upturn is also being driven in particular by the member states of the European Union, where economic output has recently contracted slightly. The strong trade figures are therefore a positive sign for growth in the fourth quarter. China's trade, on the other hand, is following the downward pull of a subdued global economy.