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Economic Outlook

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas.

+ + +  Upcoming Forecast: March 6, 2024 + + +

GERMANY

EURO AREA

WORLD

Key Indicators | GERMANY

December 2023

Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast

 2022202320242025
Gross domestic product (GDP), volume1.8-0.30.91.2
Gross domestic product, deflator5.36.71.71.5
Consumer prices6.95.92.31.8
Labor productivity (per hour worked)0.5-1.00.31.0
Employment (1000 persons)45,59645,95045,96345,900
Unemployment rate (percent)5.35.75.85.6
in relation to nominal GDP     
Public sector net lending-2.5-1.9-0.9-0.7
Gross public debt66.163.863.362.4
Current account balance4.47.27.77.8

GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by the Federal Employment Agency.
Source: Federal Statistical Office, Fachserie 18, Series 1.2; Federal Employment Agency, Monthly Bulletin; Federal Employment Agency, Employment Statistics; shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.

Key Indicator | EURO AREA

December 2023
Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast

 2022202320242025
Gross domestic product (GDP), volume3.50.61.41.7
Consumer prices8.45.72.62.2
Unemployment rate (percent)6.86.56.35.9
in relation to nominal GDP    
Public sector net lending-3.5-3.4-2.9-2.8
Current account balance-1.01.51.81.7
    

GDP, consumer prices: percentage change on previous year. Source: Eurostat; Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.

Key Indicator | WORLD

December 2023
Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.

Real GDP and consumer prices in selected countries and regions, 2023–2025

 Gross domestic productConsumer prices
 202320242025202320242025
United States2.41.52.04.22.72.3
Japan2.00.71.23.02.21.8
Euro Area0.50.81.55.42.21.9
United Kingdom0.60.81.57.23.62.7
Advanced economies1.41.21.85.12.62.2
China5.44.74.60.41.32.0
Latin America1.91.12.021.435.59.7
India7.37.07.05.85.24.9
East Asia4.54.84.83.42.52.4
Russia2.81.50.45.87.05.0
Africa3.73.33.620.120.514.7
World economy3.12.93.28.17.44.7
       
Addenum: World trade volume-2.01.22.7...
Oil price (Brent in USD/Barrel)82.278.775.3...
World economy, weighted according to GDP at 2022 market exchange rates2.72.42.85.95.03.4

Weighted according to GDP at 2022 PPP rates. — East Asia: Emerging Asia excluding China and India. — Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.

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