Subject Dossier

Economic Outlook

Here you can find our latest economic outlooks for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current comments and statements on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas.

Key indicators

  2016 2017 2018 2019
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 1,9 2,2 2,0 2,3
Gross domestic product, deflator 1,3 1,5 1,8 2,1
Consumer prices 0,5 1,7 2,0 2,0
Labor productivity (per hour worked) 1,3 0,9 0,9 1,1
Employment (1000 persons) 43.638 44.271 44.861 45.369
Unemployment rate (percent) 6,1 5,7 5,2 4,9
in relation to nominal GDP    
Public sector net lending 1,0 1,2 1,6 1,4
Gross public debt 68,1 64,9 61,1 57,5
Current account balance 8,5 8,1 8,0 7,9

GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by the Federal Employment Agency.

Source: Federal Statistical Office, Fachserie 18, Series 1.2; Federal Employment Agency, Monthly Bulletin; Federal Employment Agency, Employment Statistics; shaded: IfW forecast.
  2016 2017 2018 2019
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 1,8 2,5 2,1 2,0
Consumer prices 0,2 1,5 1,7 1,7
Unemployment rate (percent) 10,0 9,1 8,4 7,9
in relation to nominal GDP    
Public sector net lending -1,5 -0,9 -0,8 -0,7
Current account balance 3,6 3,5 3,4 3,0

GDP, consumer prices: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: ILO definition.

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts; shaded: IfW forecast.
Gross domestic product Consumer prices
  2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
United States 2,3 2,8 2,3 1,9 2,2 2,2
Japan 1,7 0,9 1,2 0,5 0,9 1,2
Euro Area 2,6 2,1 2,0 1,5 1,7 1,7
United Kingdom 1,7 1,4 0,9 2,6 2,5 2,2
Advanced economies total 2,5 2,4 2,1 1,7 2,0 1,9
China 6,9 6,5 6,2 1,6 2,1 2,3
Latin America 1,5 2,1 2,4 6,8 5,6 4,8
India 6,7 7,4 7,8 3,8 4,9 4,8
East Asia 5,2 5,2 4,7 3,1 3,0 3,4
Russia 1,5 1,8 1,5 3,7 3,1 4,0
World economy total 3,9 3,8 3,6 3,0 3,3 3,4
             
Addendum: World trade volume 4,9 3,5 3,5 . . .
Oil price (Brent in US-$) 54,2 74,2 75,9 . . .
World economy total (weighted according to GDP at market exchange rates) 3,3 3,3 3,1 2,6 2,9 2,9

Weighted according to GDP at PPP rates. — East Asia: Emerging Asia excluding China and India. — Shaded: IfW forecast.

Source: Forecast of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

All Business Cycle Forecasts

Economic Outlook

German economy closer to its limit

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
03/2018

Die Luft für den Aufschwung in Deutschland wird dünner. Nach dem kräftigen Anstieg von 2,2 Prozent im Jahr 2017 dürfte sich die gesamtwirtschaftlich ...

Economic Outlook

German economy approaches boom period

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
09/2017

The pronounced expansion of the German economy accelerates further. Compared to our summer forecast, we adjust our forecast for the current and the next ...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area: Improved Outlook in Spite of Uncertainties

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2017

The economic recovery in the euro area remains moderate. While several sentiment indicators have improved considerably over the past few months, and the ...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area: Uncertainty weighs temporarily on recovery

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2016

Economic Recovery in the Euro Area has lost momentum in the second half of 2015. Due to dampening effects from the world economy and a marked increase i ...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area: Moderate Recovery proceeds

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2015

Economic activity in the Euro Area is gradually gaining grip in 2015. Sentiment indicators suggest that the current - rather moderate - recovery will pr ...

Economic Outlook

World economic momentum peaks

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
03/2018

At the start of 2018 the global economy is in full swing. On a PPP-basis growth in 2017 was 3.9 percent, the highest rate since 2011. While leading indicators point to...

Economic Outlook

World economic upswing continues

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
12/2017

The world economy is currently expanding strongly with upward momentum in almost every major economy. Global activity is set to expand by 3.8 percent, 0 ...

Economic Outlook

World economy in full swing

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
09/2017

In the second quarter of 2017, global output has reaccelerated after a somewhat muted start into the year. For the first time in a number of years, ther ...

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