Subject Dossier

Economic Outlook

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas

Most recent forecasts

Key indicators

Unbenanntes Dokument
  2017 2018 2019 2020
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 2,2 1,4 1,0 1,8
Gross domestic product, deflator 1,5 1,9 2,3 2,1
Consumer prices 1,5 1,7 1,5 1,8
Labor productivity (per hour worked) 0,9 -0,0 -0,1 1,0
Employment (1000 persons) 44.269 44.838 45.291 45.618
Unemployment rate (percent) 5,7 5,2 4,8 4,6
in relation to nominal GDP    
Public sector net lending 1,0 1,7 1,2 0,7
Gross public debt 63,9 59,9 56,7 54,1
Current account balance 8,0 7,4 7,2 7,2
Unbenanntes Dokument
2017 2018 2019 2020
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 2,5 1,8 1,2 1,5
Consumer prices 1,5 1,7 1,3 1,5
Unemployment rate (percent) 9,1 8,2 7,6 7,2
in relation to nominal GDP    
Public sector net lending -1 -0,6 -1 -1,1
Current account balance 3,2 3,1 2,3 2,1
Unbenanntes Dokument
Gross domestic product Consumer prices
  2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
United States 2,9 2,1 1,8 2,4 1,7 2,2
Japan 0,7 0,6 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,8
Euro Area 1,8 1,2 1,5 1,7 1,3 1,5
United Kingdom 1,4 0,8 1,0 2,4 2,0 2,3
Advanced economies total 2,3 1,9 1,8 2,0 1,7 1,9
China 6,6 6,1 5,8 2,2 2,3 2,3
Latin America 0,6 1,1 2,2 6,8 7,8 6,0
India 7,3 7,1 6,8 4,0 3,6 5,0
East Asia 5,1 4,7 4,6 2,7 3,2 3,4
Russia 2,3 1,5 1,6 2,9 4,8 4,0
World economy total 3,7 3,3 3,3 3,3 3,3 3,5
             
Addendum: World trade volume 3,5 1,0 3,0 . . .
Oil price (Brent in US-$) 71,3 65,7 67,7 . . .
World economy total (weighted according to GDP at market exchange rates) 3,2 2,7 2,7 2,9 2,8 2,9

Selected Publications

All Business Cycle Forecasts

Economic Outlook

German economy cools down

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
03/2019

KKB 53: The German economy has shifted down a gear. After still very high economic momentum in Germany until the middle of last year, production stalled noticeably. ...

Economic Outlook

Germany’s boom is maturing

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
09/2018

KKB 47: The economic upswing in Germany continues, although the expansion loses some steam. Compared to our summer forecast, we reduced our expectations for GDP growth by...

Economic Outlook

German Economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
06/2018

KKB 44: The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5 percentage points ...

Economic Outlook

Euro area economy slows further

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2019

KKB 52: The euro area economy has once again switched back a gear. The slowdown over the course of 2018 is mainly due to weaker impulses from the international environment...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area economy loses steam

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2018

KKB 46: The Euro area economy has lost momentum in the first half of 2018. The slowdown was due to country-specific temporary factors and a weakness of world trade since...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area: Improved Outlook in Spite of Uncertainties

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2017

KKB 28: The economic recovery in the euro area remains moderate. While several sentiment indicators have improved considerably over the past few months, and the ...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area: Uncertainty weighs temporarily on recovery

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2016

KKB 16: Economic Recovery in the Euro Area has lost momentum in the second half of 2015. Due to dampening effects from the world economy and a marked increase i ...

Economic Outlook

Reduced momentum in the world economy

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
03/2019

KKB 51: The world economy has lost steam in the second half of the previous year and is likely to continue to expand at a subdued pace in 2019.

Economic Outlook

Slower growth in the World Economy

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
12/2018

KKB 49: World economic growth is moderating accompanied by a broad-based deterioration in economic sentiment.

Economic Outlook

Reduced World Economic Momentum

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
06/2018

KKB 43: The world economy has lost momentum in the beginning of this year, although partly due to special factors.

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