Subject Dossier

Economic Outlook

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas

Most recent forecasts

Key indicators

  2018 2019 2020 2021
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 1,5 0,6 -7,1 7,2
Gross domestic product, deflator 1,5 2,1 2,4 1,4
Consumer prices 1,7 1,4 1,4 2,0
Labor productivity (per hour worked) 0,3 0,0 -4,0 3,8
Employment (1000 persons) 44.854 45.236 44.828 44.796
Unemployment rate (percent) 5,2 5,0 6,1 6,1
in relation to nominal GDP      
Public sector net lending 1,9 1,4 -5,3 -2,2
Gross public debt 61,7 60,0 76,9 72,6
Current account balance 7,4 7,1 5,2 5,8
GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by the Federal Employment Agency.
Source: Federal Statistical Office, Fachserie 18, Series 1.2; Federal Employment Agency, Monthly Bulletin; Federal Employment Agency, Employment Statistics; shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.
19.05.2020
  2019 2020 2021
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 1,2 -8,4 6,8
Consumer prices 1,2 0,9 1,9
Unemployment rate (percent) 7,5 10 9,4
in relation to nominal GDP    
Public sector net lending -0,6 -9,5 -4,6
Current account balance 2,8 1,7 2
19.05.2020

Real GDP and consumer prices in selected countries and regions, 2019–2021

  Gross domestic product Consumer prices
  2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
United States 2,3 -6,4 4,8 1,8 0,6 1,6
Japan 0,7 -3,3 2,9 0,8 0,1 1,0
Euro Area 1,5 -8,8 6,6 1,1 0,8 1,8
United Kingdom 1,4 -7,9 6,9 1,8 1,7 2,1
Advanced economies total 1,8 -6,7 5,4 1,5 0,9 1,7
China 6,1 0,4 9,7 2,9 3,7 2,3
Latin America 0,7 -5,7 4,7 8,7 7,9 7,0
India 5,3 -2,7 8,2 3,7 4,6 3,8
East Asia 4,6 -3,8 6,5 2,0 1,4 3,0
Russia 1,3 -9,0 5,1 4,5 5,0 3,5
World economy total 3,1 -4,0 6,5 3,6 3,5 3,4
             
Addendum: World trade volume -0,4 -10,4 9,3 . . .
Oil price (Brent in US$) 64,4 34,7 41,4 . . .
World economy total (weighted according to GDP at market exchange rates) 2,6 -4,9 6,1 2,9 2,6 2,9
Weighted according to GDP at PPP rates. — East Asia: Emerging Asia excluding China and India. — Shaded: IfW forecast.
Source: Forecast of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

19.05.2020

Selected Publications

All Business Cycle Forecasts

Economic Outlook

German economy: V(irus)-shaped recession ahead

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
03/2020

KKB 65: The spread of the coronavirus will have a considerable impact on the German economy. The economy will be hit in a situation in which it was just about to regain...

Economic Outlook

Germany at the brink of recession

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
09/2019

KKB 59: The German economy is at the brink of a recession. Gross domestic product is likely to decline again in the third quarter.

Economic Outlook

German economy falters

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
06/2019

KKB 56: The German economy is facing strong headwinds. In recent months, economic momentum has continued to slow down and companies are much more pessimistic about the...

Economic Outlook

Euro area faces recession

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2020

KKB 64: The spread of the corona virus poses major challenges for the euro area economy. Sentiment indicators for February still point to a supposed rise in momentum. ...

Economic Outlook

Euro area economy robust, but with low momentum

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2019

KKB 58: The euro area economy is currently expanding at a moderate pace. The underlying momentum has slowed noticeably since early 2018, which is mainly attributable to...

Economic Outlook

Euro area economy slows further

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2019

KKB 52: The euro area economy has once again switched back a gear. The slowdown over the course of 2018 is mainly due to weaker impulses from the international environment...

Economic Outlook

Euro Area economy loses steam

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2018

KKB 46: The Euro area economy has lost momentum in the first half of 2018. The slowdown was due to country-specific temporary factors and a weakness of world trade since...

Economic Outlook

World Economy Under Strain

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
03/2020

KKB 63: In early 2020 the world economy is severely affected by the consequences of a novel coronavirus and the measures implemented to arrest its spreading. With the...

Economic Outlook

World Economy picks up only slowly

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
09/2019

KKB 57: In the first half of 2019, world economic activity has remained sluggish. While economic activity in the industrial countries decelerated in the course of the...

Economic Outlook

Global growth remains sluggish

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
06/2019

KKB 55: Despite a temporary pick-up in world production at the start of the year, growth will continue to moderate amid a further deterioration in economic sentiment and...

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