Prof. Dr. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

The purpose of the report is to provide a systematic overview of the relevant data related to Big Data and their potential for macroeconomic analysis (in particular business cycle monitoring and forecasting). In this context, both the possibilities and the challenges that may arise due to data availability, data quality, methodological requirements or the manageability of the data will be discussed in detail.

This study aims at investigating the extent and causes of revisions of output gap estimates and at analyzing methodological issues along different phases of the business cycle. Based on this, possibilities for improvement of the European Commission's current estimation approach are elaborated and evaluated.

Embedded in a comprehensive outlook for the world economy, the Joint Economic Forecast („Gemeinschaftsdiagnose“, GD) prepares in-debth analyses and forecasts for the German economy (detailed 2-year horizon and 5-year medium term projections including potential output estimations). These forecasts are input for the projections of the Federal Government in Germany. The forecasting exercise is carried out jointly by a group of economic research institutes. Based on the diagnostic results and taking into account important issues in the public debate on economic issues the institutes also come up with policy recommendations.