Dr. Klaus-Jürgen Gern

On behalf of the World Free Zones Organization (World FZO), the Kiel Institute for the World Economy took charge of the World Free Zones Economic Outlook, an annual comprehensive review of economic activity, and the Free Zones World Economic Barometer (F-WEB), a quarterly sentiment indicator for special economic zones.

Embedded in a comprehensive outlook for the world economy, the Joint Economic Forecast („Gemeinschaftsdiagnose“, GD) prepares in-debth analyses and forecasts for the German economy (detailed 2-year horizon and 5-year medium term projections including potential output estimations). These forecasts are input for the projections of the Federal Government in Germany. The forecasting exercise is carried out jointly by a group of economic research institutes. Based on the diagnostic results and taking into account important issues in the public debate on economic issues the institutes also come up with policy recommendations.

Since March 2015 the Kiel Institute for the World Economy advises the European Parliament on issues related to monetary and economic policy. In particular the Kiel Institute prepares surveys on current issues of currency and monetary policies in the Euro Area in order to brace the European Parliament for regular discussions with the European Central Bank (EZB).

The number of Covid-19 cases and deaths in Africa is significantly underreported in official data. Estimates of excess mortality show that the reporting gap is particularly large compared with other world regions. The Covid-19 pandemic affects the continent’s economies substantially despite low official case numbers and will also weigh on economic development in the longer term. This is the result of an analysis by the Kiel Institute.

The economic recovery in the euro area is currently still a long time coming, but is expected to be strong from the second quarter onward. Thanks to numerous short-time work programs in the Member States, the conventional unemployment rate rose only moderately in 2020, but including short-time workers unemployment shot up to as much as 35 percent in France and 17 percent in Germany. Public debt in the euro area will now exceed 100 percent of gross domestic product.

Trump has failed with his campaign promises to achieve complete revitalization of the US manufacturing industry. His economic policy has not led to any substantial improvement. Even the industries that enjoyed particular protection by the Trump administration's trade policy are not showing extraordinarily strong developments. In the automotive industry, the situation has actually deteriorated somewhat.