Quantifying the Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of Sanctions on Russia

doi:https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/roie.12707

Journal Article

Quantifying the Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of Sanctions on Russia

Review of International Economics, 32(1): 281–323

Autoren

Flach
L.
Heiland
I.
Larch
M.
Steininger
M.
Teti
F.

Erscheinungsdatum: forthcoming

This paper evaluates the effects of sanctions on Russia between 2014 and 2019 and the resulting countersanctions. We estimate their impact on trade in a gravity framework, allowing for treatment heterogeneity among pairs and sectors, and use the estimated elasticities in a general equilibrium analysis. We find that the sanctions decreased trade with Russia in key sectors, translating to a loss in real income in Russia by 0.3%. Full decoupling of the EU and its allies from Russia would increase this effect to over 4%. Our results emphasize the role of deep sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and international cooperation.