Journal Article

Quantifying the Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of Sanctions on Russia


  • Flach
  • L.
  • Heiland
  • I.
  • Larch
  • M.
  • Steininger
  • M.
  • Teti
  • F.
Publication Date

This paper evaluates the effects of sanctions on Russia between 2014 and 2019 and the resulting countersanctions. We estimate their impact on trade in a gravity framework, allowing for treatment heterogeneity among pairs and sectors, and use the estimated elasticities in a general equilibrium analysis. We find that the sanctions decreased trade with Russia in key sectors, translating to a loss in real income in Russia by 0.3%. Full decoupling of the EU and its allies from Russia would increase this effect to over 4%. Our results emphasize the role of deep sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and international cooperation.


JEL Classification
F1, F13, F14, F5, F51, H5, N4

Key Words

  • general equilibrium
  • sanctions
  • structural gravity
  • treatment heterogeneity