Modeling Suite

Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World: Case Studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. This book takes both a global and local perspective in assessing the impacts of climate change on the economy, agricultural sector, and households in three countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen. The major commodities affected by global climate change are food and energy prices, especially since the countries under analysis are, or have become, net importers of oil and petroleum products and many food products in recent years. Local climate change can result in decreased crop yields in the long run, which slows productivity in the agricultural sector and may have implications for the livelihoods of those dependent on the sector, not to mention the rest of the economy. The analysis also covers what happens when both global and local climate change occur simultaneously for each country. Findings indicate that in all three countries the effects of climate change are negative for the population and the economy—GDP falls and livelihoods suffer. Furthermore, the prevalence of extreme variations in climate—such as the droughts affecting Syria and the floods impacting Yemen—draws attention to potentially significant drawbacks. Not only are these drawbacks likely to affect any strides toward economic growth and development, but also they may reverse such strides if appropriate policies are not in place to weather this storm.