Wirtschaftspolitischer Beitrag

Expectations matter: Boosting local economies to cut migration from developing countries


  • Schneiderheinze
  • C.
  • Tohoff
  • L.

Key messages:

  • If people expect their local economy to improve, they are less likely to migrate—even given low-income levels.
  • Expectations are more important for the emigration decision than income levels. They also respond better to policy interventions in the short to medium term.
  • At the same time, slow-moving factors such as educational advancement, demographic change, and structural economic transformation can still increase migration in the long term.

Experte IfW Kiel



  • Entwicklung
  • Wirtschaftliche Perspektiven
  • Wirtschaftswachstum