Expectations matter: Boosting local economies to cut migration from developing countries

Key messages:

• If people expect their local economy to improve, they are less likely to migrate—even given low-income levels.
• Expectations are more important for the emigration decision than income levels. They also respond better to policy interventions in the short to medium term.
• At the same time, slow-moving factors such as educational advancement, demographic change, and structural economic transformation can still increase migration in the long term.