Policy Article

Expectations matter: Boosting local economies to cut migration from developing countries


  • Schneiderheinze
  • C.
  • Tohoff
  • L.
Publication Date

Key messages:

  • If people expect their local economy to improve, they are less likely to migrate—even given low-income levels.
  • Expectations are more important for the emigration decision than income levels. They also respond better to policy interventions in the short to medium term.
  • At the same time, slow-moving factors such as educational advancement, demographic change, and structural economic transformation can still increase migration in the long term.

Kiel Institute Expert


Key Words

  • Development
  • Economic Expectations
  • Economic Growth