Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch

Director

International Finance and Macroeconomics

Topics: International Finance, Fiscal Policy & National Budgets, Economic & Financial Crises

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Further Affiliations

Main research interests

Sovereign Debt and Default
International Capital Flows
Financial Stability and Financial Crises
Political Economy
International Financial Institutions

For an overview of my research papers please visit:
https://sites.google.com/site/christophtrebesch/research

Current Position:
Since April 2017 Kiel Institute, Head of Research Area “International Finance and Global Governance”
Since April 2017 Professor of Macroeconomics (tenured), Kiel University

Previous Positions:
2011-2017 Assistant Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Munich (LMU)
2006-2011 Research Associate, Hertie School and FU Berlin

Education:
2011 PhD (Doctorate) in Economics, Free University Berlin
2009/2010 Yale, Visiting Graduate Student (Fox Fellowship)
2005/2006 Kiel Advanced Studies Programme
2005 Master (Diplom) in Economics, Free University Berlin

Research Visits:
2016 (Febr/April) UC Berkely
2014 (Jan & Oct) Harvard Kennedy School
2013 (Sept.) Fed Chicago
2013 & 2010 International Monetary Fund

Journal Article

Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014

European Economic Review

09/2016

Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that...

Journal Article

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

American Economic Review: Papers Proceedings

01/2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date...

Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration episode that...

Journal Article

Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath

Journal of the European Economic Association

02/2016

This paper studies sovereign debt relief in a long-term perspective. We quantify the relief achieved through default and restructuring in two distinct samples: 1920–1939,...

Journal Article

The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy

Economic Policy

01/2013

The Greek debt restructuring of 2012 stands out in the history of sovereign defaults. It achieved very large debt relief – over 50% of 2012 GDP – with minimal financial...

Journal Article

Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

01/2013

A main puzzle in the sovereign debt literature is that defaults have only minor effects on subsequent borrowing costs and access to credit. This paper comes to a different...

Journal Article

Political Booms, Financial Crises

Journal of Political Economy

forthcoming

Helios Herrera, Guillermo Ordoñez, Christoph Trebesch

We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other...

Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris ...

A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts With Foreign Governments Through a systematic search of debt information management systems,...

Chuck Fang, Julian Schumacher, Christoph Trebesch

Sovereign debt crises are difficult to solve. This paper studies the “holdout problem”, meaning the risk that creditors refuse to...

Working Paper

Populist Leaders and the Economy

Kiel Working Papers

10/2020

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Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, Christoph Trebesch

Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies...

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Christoph Trebesch, Manuel Funke

Among 41 populist governments of the past 50 years, there are only 9 cases in which the populists left office in a regular manner. In...

Contribution

China’s Overseas Lending and the Looming Developing Country Debt Crisis

Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik

06/2020

Sebastian Horn, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch

Sebastian Horn, Josefin Meyer, Christoph Trebesch

Kiel Policy Brief No. 136: The history of joint European bond issuance has been largely forgotten. The authors show that bonds issued...

Manuel Funke, Josefin Meyer, Christoph Trebesch

KBW 24: According to a recent German-French proposal, a financial market transaction tax (FTT) at a rate of 0.2% on the purchase of...

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The then Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa visits China, 14 - 15 Jul 2015

The research project studies the effects that China’s growing economic engagement has on African economies, and how China’s economic presence is perceived by African citizens. To this effect, the key dimensions of trade,...

In the Economic Cluster Africa Research (Wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Cluster Afrikaforschung; WCA), economic research on Africa oriented towards the most relevant topics in terms of economic policy is to be developed....

Populism is one of the main challenges of our time. However, the phenomenon has not been sufficiently researched so far, especially in economics. In particular, there is a lack of sustainable prevention strategies. This...

In a project with Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart we ask: How do international capital flows affect global financial stability? To address this question we create a new, extensive database on international capital...

Printing 100 Chinese yuan money banknotes

An unprecedented cache of documents shows that Chinese loan contracts have unusual secrecy provisions, collateral requirements,...

People in voting booths during US elections

Governments that successfully contain the pandemic and adopt strict countermeasures are the big winners of the Corona...

Coronavirus EU response - on stage Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel

Global inter-state lending to tackle the corona crisis could reach record levels, exceeding the huge international financial...

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China’s rapidly growing economic activities are visible across the African continent in its bilateral trade, investment overseas, development aid activities, and migratory pattern. China has, for example, quickly evolved from being an aid...

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Global Solutions Summit 2019

Achieving Paradigm Change

18 - 19 Mar 2019

With a view to the Japanese G20 Presidency 2019 and T20 Summit in Tokyo, the Global Solutions Summit – The World Policy Forum in Berlin will take place on 18-19 March 2019.

Institut für Weltwirtschaft

... An enterprising team including Brad Parks at AidData, a research centre at the College of William and Mary in Virginia, has...

... researchers at the College of William and Mary in Virginia, Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Peterson...

...The new research from academics in the U.S. and Europe analyzed publicly available contracts signed by Chinese state-owned...

... The researchers at AidData, the Washington-based Center for Global Development (CGD), Germany’s Kiel Institute and the Peterson...

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RT @StefanKooths: Hohe #Auslastung in der #Industrie: Grund sind Kapazitätsbarrieren, nicht das Aktivitätsniveau. Störfaktoren verzögern ab…

RT @nakstiftung: Einschalten nicht vergessen📺 Heute Abend um 21:15 auf @Hamburg1 wird die neue Folge "Wissenschaft im Dialog" mit @DanielGr…

RT @Sonali_Chowdhry: At the heels of #euindiasummit scheduled for tomorrow, a look at the asymmetries across 🇪🇺 members in goods exports t…

Alle Infos zu unserem neuen Kiel Trade Indicator und die aktuellen Daten sind hier zu finden: ifw-kiel.de/de/themendossi… twitter.com/BakerMcGER/sta…

Eine finanzielle Aufstockung des #COVAX Fonds, der dann gezielt Patente mit Auktionsverfahren aufkauft, um Lizenzen an Hersteller in ärmeren Ländern zu vergeben – Gesundheitsökonom Michael Stolpe @NDRInfo (ab 8:10) über eine Alternative zur #Patentfreigabe ndr.de/nachrichten/in…

Kommentar: @GFelbermayr zu Aussetzen des #Patentschutz|es für #Corona-Impfstoffe: "#China und #Russland bieten #Impfstoffe aggressiv in ärmeren Ländern an, durch Patentaussetzung kann #USA geopolitisch gegensteuern." ifw-kiel.de/de/media-pages…

"In the pandemic we’ve seen very clearly that it’s extremely important to figure out early what’s happening,” says Kiel Institute's president @GFelbermayr . @business on our new Kiel Trade Indicator. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

ifw-kiel.de/topics/interna… t.co/24EUJ4tMxK

Our novel Kiel Trade Indicator is now online. Import/export indications for 75 countries. Learn more 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications/m… t.co/x0AAtQMiyM

ifw-kiel.de/de/themendossi… t.co/fCQ4gQ0oqY

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Further Affiliations

Main research interests

Selected Publications

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