Business meeting

Research Center

Business Cycles and Growth

The Research Center Business Cycles and Growth combines regular forecasting with macroeconomic research and comprehensive policy advice. Bringing together theoretical expertise, empirical evidence, and institutional knowledge in macroeconomic affairs is key to our mission. Based on the ongoing diagnosis of macroeconomic developments we proactively identify relevant policy challenges, develop research-based solutions, and communicate the results in the form of consulting output and media contacts. Macroeconomic research activities aim at continuously improving our analytic toolbox and provides feedback to academia on the usefulness of empirical methods and theoretical models.

Our comprehensive package of Kiel Economic Outlooks comprises quarterly reports on the world economy and Germany (two-year horizon), complemented by semiannual reports on the euro area and medium-term projections for Germany (five-year horizon), including in-depth analyses and estimates of potential output. We contribute to the Joint Economic Forecast produced by Germany’s leading economic research institutes and to the federal government’s Tax Revenue Projections. Our work is fed into all major consensus polls, including the ECB survey of professional forecasters. We cooperate with partners all over the world, such as the European research networks EUROFRAME and AIECE. The Kieler Konjunkturgespräche (KKG) is our flagship conference on international business cycles and global economic affairs, where we present our research and discuss global macroeconomic issues with other forecasters, policymakers, and business leaders. The annual scientific conference within the Ensuring Economic and Employment Stability Network (EES) brings together academic researchers in our field of expertise.