Working Paper

Agriculture, Incomes and Gender in Latin America by 2050: An assessment of potential climate change impacts and household resilience for Brazil, Mexico and Peru


  • Breisinger
  • C.
  • Jemio
  • L.C.
  • Wiebelt
  • M.
  • Mason-D'Croz
  • D.
  • Ringler
  • C.
  • Robertson
  • R.
  • Verner
  • D.
  • Andersen
  • L.E.
Publication Date

This report has been prepared in response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. Findings suggest that because of the climate change impacts on agricultural production (yield change) and international food prices, unless proper mitigation measures are implemented, by 2050 Brazil and Mexico may face accumulated economic loses between US$ 272.7 billion and US$ 550.6 billion and between US$ 91.0 billion and US$ 194.7, respectively. Peru, with a different productive structure, may face both economic gain and loss (a gain of US$11.0 billion against a loss of US$ 43.3 billion). At the household level, by 2050 Brazilian households may lose 4.3–28.8 percent of one year’s income, and Mexican households may lose 8.0–18.6 percent. The gender analysis suggests that male-headed households may be more vulnerable (less resilient) to climate change than female-headed households, as female-headed households tend to have slightly higher per capita income and higher levels of income diversification than their male counterparts in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru.

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