Journal Article

A dynamic factor model with time-varying loadings for euro area bond markets during the debt crisis


  • Boysen-Hogrefe
  • J.
Publication Date

The debt crisis in the euro area led to obvious changes in the structure of euro area bond

markets. To model the process of disintegration that has taken place as a result of this crisis this analysis uses a dynamic factor model with time-varying loadings and two factors. While some

core countries load rather stably on one factor, this factor loses its impact on many peripheral

countries over time. At least for some periods, countries that are affected by the debt crisis load highly on a second factor, especially Spain and Italy. Ireland, Portugal, and Greece, which all load highly on the second factor for some periods, show signs of decoupling at the current edge.

Kiel Institute Expert


JEL Classification
C11, C23, C25

Key Words

  • Bayesian Estimation
  • Bond markets
  • Dynamic Factor Models
  • euro crisis
  • Eurokrise
  • time-varying loadings