Research Seminar

The Long Road to First Oil — David Mihalyi

27 Apr 2021


David Mihalyi (Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI))


The road from a petroleum discovery to production is long, especially in developing countries. On average they take 7 years with a standard deviation of 9 years and a quarter of the fields are yet to reach production. I analyze the drivers of petroleum project timelines using survival analysis and event study methods. Institutions are a key factor. Democracies and state-owned firms operating domestically are significantly quicker. My findings suggest earlier research which measured lagged impacts of giant petroleum discoveries provided biased estimates of subsequent production shocks.

here paper version


Virtuall via Zoom
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