Abrha Teklay Abay (Aarhus University)
The global climate is projected to continue to change throughout the current century and this change may affect many aspects of agricultural production. In this paper, we analyze the response of winter wheat, spring barley, and winter oil seed rape grain yield to climate change over two twenty year projection periods, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099, relative to a baseline period (1996-2015) climate. We base the projection on climate change predictions of 16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs), under two IPCC emission scenarios considered likely for the 21st century (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study compiles a unique and detailed farm level longitudinal yield data, field level crop choices, finely detailed weather data and climate predictions for Denmark to estimate climate change impact parameters. Our findings indicate that unabated climate could pose a severe potential damage to both winter wheat and spring barley yields under all climate scenarios and projection windows. On the contrary, winter oilseed rape yield is predicted to increase substantially throughout the century.
Abrha Teklay Abay (Aarhus University) – Robert Mendelsohn (Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies ) – Mette Termansen (University of Copenhagen)