What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia


  • Bachmann
  • R.
  • Baqaee
  • D.
  • Bayer
  • C.
  • Kuhn
  • M.
  • Löschel
  • A.
  • Moll
  • B.
  • Peichl
  • A.
  • Pittel
  • K.
  • Schularick
  • M.
Publication Date

This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP decline in range between 0.5% and 3% (cf. the GDP decline in 2020 during the pandemic was 4.5%).

Kiel Institute Expert