What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia


  • Rüdiger Bachmann
  • David Baqaee
  • Christian Bayer
  • Moritz Kuhn
  • Andreas Löschel
  • Benjamin Moll
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Karen Pittel
  • Moritz Schularick
Publication Date

This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP decline in range between 0.5% and 3% (cf. the GDP decline in 2020 during the pandemic was 4.5%).

Kiel Institute Expert