What if Germany is cut off from Russian energy?


  • Bachmann
  • R.
  • Baqaee
  • D.
  • Bayer
  • C.
  • Kuhn
  • M.
  • Löschel
  • A.
  • Moll
  • B.
  • Peichl
  • A.
  • Pittel
  • K.
  • Schularick
  • M.
Publication Date

Germany depends on Russia for about one-third of its total energy consumption. If it is cut off from Russian energy imports, Germany will need to compensate through alternative supply sources, fuel shifting and economic reallocation, or demand reduction. The macroeconomic fallout would depend on how much the production structure can adjust and how substitutable the imports from Russia are by imports from other suppliers. This column shows that the effects of an estimated 30% shortfall of gas supplies are likely to be substantial but manageable, with a GDP decline in the range of 0.5% to 3%.

Kiel Institute Expert