Economic Outlook

German Economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet


  • Ademmer
  • M.
  • Boysen-Hogrefe
  • J.
  • Fiedler
  • S.
  • Groll
  • D.
  • Hauber
  • P.
  • Jannsen
  • N.
  • Kooths
  • S.
  • Potjagailo
  • G.
  • Wolters
  • M.
Publication Date

KKB 44: The strong economic upswing in Germany has taken a break. For the current year, we revise our GDP growth forecast down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.0 percent. However, the slowdown in economic activity at the beginning of the year is mainly due to temporary factors. We therefore expect growth to regain momentum during the course of the year. For 2019, we expect German GDP to increase by 2.3 percent. Thus, production continues to increase faster than potential output. With capacity utilization already at very high levels, the German economy will get closer to its limit.


Key Words

  • business cycle forecast
  • consumption
  • factor model
  • Forecast error evaluation
  • leading indicators
  • outlook
  • stabilization policy