Working Paper
From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries
This paper uses a Markov regime-switching model to assess the vulnerability of a series of Central and Eastern European countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic) and two CIS countries (i.e., Russia and Ukraine) during the period 1993-2004.
Key Words
- Central and Eastern Europe
- CIS
- Currency Crisis
- early warning system
- EU
- Markov switching
- Mittel- und Osteuropa
- Währungskrise