Working Paper

From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries


  • Kittelmann
  • K.
  • Schweickert
  • R.
  • Vinhas de Souza
  • L.
  • Tirpak
  • M.
Publication Date

This paper uses a Markov regime-switching model to assess the vulnerability of a series of Central and Eastern European countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic) and two CIS countries (i.e., Russia and Ukraine) during the period 1993-2004.

Kiel Institute Expert


JEL Classification
F47, P20, C22

Key Words

  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • CIS
  • Currency Crisis
  • early warning system
  • EU
  • Markov switching
  • Mittel- und Osteuropa
  • Währungskrise