Journal Article

Predicting freight flows in a globalising world


  • Bröcker
  • J.
  • Korzhenevych
  • A.
  • Riekhof
  • M.-C.
Publication Date

In this paper we suggest a methodology to predict commodity-specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and in quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are three driving forces of the transport flows dynamics: economic growth, the ongoing globalization (reduction of trade barriers), and the changing commodity composition of trade, whereby the evolution of value-to-weight ratios is explicitly taken into account. The methodology is applied to forecast the interregional trade flows in Europe.

Key Words

  • Globalisierung
  • globalization
  • gravity model
  • interregional trade
  • transport flows