Media Releases

Can development aid curb migration? Contrary to the dominant view among development experts, new research shows how aid can actually reduce migration if it improves public services. But aid is only one of many factors affecting migration decisions. Donors should thus not expect too much of it.

German foreign investment, especially direct investment, is better than its reputation. Criticism of Germany’s net capital exports in the debate over the country’s current account is based on too narrow a view. Revenue from foreign assets is not the cause of high current account surpluses, nor are there any indications that investors are neglecting the return on cross-border investments. That is the conclusion of a recent report produced for the German Federal Ministry of Finance by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Survey data from 13 EU member states show that Europeans assess the impact of immigration on their country in a more positive light than they did in 2002. Despite the 2015 reflugee inflow and an increased polarization of citizens’ attitudes towards immigration, these findings indicate that policy makers have room to develop balanced solutions for asylum and immigration policy.

US economist Prof. Carmen Reinhart, Ph.D., is the recipient of this year’s Bernhard Harms Prize from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The award carries prize money of EUR 25,000. Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University and gained international recognition for her empirical studies on the causes and consequences of financial crises. She is one of the most cited economists worldwide. The award ceremony will be held on October 24.

In recent years, the EU coastal states have moved backward rather than forward in terms of sustainable use of the seas. The fishing industry in particular has not been able to deliver sustainable development. That is the conclusion of a recent study conducted by Wilfried Rickels, a researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, together with colleagues. According to this study, almost all EU coastal states are in a worse position in 2018 than they were in 2012 with regard to sustainable development of their seas and oceans.

Germany’s leading economics research institutes have downwardly revised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019. They now expect economic output to increase by 1.7 percent in 2018, and not 2.2 percent as forecast in spring. They also scaled back their 2019 forecast slightly from 2.0 to 1.9 percent. These are the results of the Joint Economic Forecast for autumn 2018 that will be presented in Berlin on Thursday.

The legal risks of sovereign default have grown significantly in recent decades. Since the 1980s, creditors have been increasingly successful in suing defaulting countries, especially in courts in the US and UK. The main beneficiaries have been specialized hedge funds. As a result, sovereign debt crises have become more difficult to resolve and can create additional financial burdens for the population of the defaulting country. Those are the findings of an empirical study co-produced by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Professor Gabriel Felbermayr has been appointed Professor of Economics at the Kiel University (CAU) and will become the new President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Scheduled to take office in March 2019, Felbermayr succeeds Professor Dennis J. Snower, who has reached compulsory retirement age. Currently, Gabriel Felbermayr is a professor of economics at the University of Munich (LMU) and Director of the ifo Center for International Economics at the ifo Institute, which is also based in Munich.

The economic researchers at the Kiel Institute have revised their forecast for the GDP growth rate for the current and coming year slightly downwards. They now expect growth of 1.9 percent for 2018 and 2.0 percent for 2019. This means that the boom in Germany will continue for the time being, but clearly strained capacities will probably ring in the downturn with the transition to the new decade. The additional expenditure decided on by the Federal Government for the long term is likely to mean that as early as 2020 the black zero can no longer be maintained structurally.

At present, widespread use of cryptocurrencies for payment would entail sub-stantial risks and costs. A digital central bank currency, on the other hand, could have a positive impact on the monetary and credit system. That is the conclusion of researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in a study for the European Parliament.

The economic researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) have lowered their forecast for GDP growth in the current year by 0.5 percentage points to 2 percent. This is mainly due to a slowdown in manufac-turing output at the start of the year, with the trade conflict with the United States likely being just one of the causes. For 2019, they are sticking to their original forecast of 2.3 percent growth and a continued boom in Germany. Unemployment is expected to fall below 5 percent, with inflation running at around 2 percent.

Four young economists based in the United States and Europe received this year’s Excellence Awards in Global Economic Affairs from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Created to promote young talent, the Excellence Awards are open to researchers and academics up to 35 years of age.

The Global Economy Prize of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and its partners, the City of Kiel and the IHK Schleswig-Holstein was presented today in Kiel for the fourteenth time. This year’s recipients demonstrate “how responsible use of information and knowledge facilitates solutions to the global problems of our time,” said Kiel Institute President Dennis Snower.

The Forecasting Center, the Kiel Institute’s macroeconomic think tank and business cycle analysis unit, is among the winners of the “2017 Forecast Accuracy Award” (2017 FAA), a price awarded by the UK-based survey organization Consensus Economics. The Kiel Institute has been recognized for the most accurate prediction of GDP growth and inflation in Germany. The award reflects the forecasting performance for the year 2017 over a period of 24 months.

Germany’s leading economic experts raised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019 slightly in their Spring Joint Economic Forecast released on Thursday in Berlin. They now expect economic growth of 2.2 percent for this year and 2.0 percent for 2019, versus 2.0 percent and 1.8 percent respectively in their autumn forecast.

The winners of the Global Economy Prize 2018 have been revealed. Awarded by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in partnership with the City of Kiel and Schleswig-Holstein Chamber of Commerce, the prize is now being presented for the 14th time. It aims to inspire an international approach to solving the global economic challenges of our time.

Your great-grandparents’ socio-economic status still predicts your status today, according to research by Sebastian Braun from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Jan Stuhler from the University Madrid. Their study of educational and occupational status over four generations in twentieth century Germany reveals that inequalities do not disappear quickly but can be transmitted across multiple generations. It is published in the March 2018 issue of the Economic Journal.

Irregular migration can only be reduced if potential migrants have better options.

Germany’s current account surplus is set to remain very high for the foreseeable future, with German policy makers largely unable to prevent it. Due to either political or technical obstacles, there is little chance that specific measures to reduce the German current account balance can be implemented on the necessary scale.

On Tuesday, representatives from the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Ent­wicklungspolitik (DIE) and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy met in Washington, D.C. with senior Argentine government and academic representatives. As the South American country is taking over the chair of the G20 in December 2017, the meeting at its embassy formally marked the transfer of the Think20 (T20) leadership to two Argentine research institutions—Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (CARI) and Centro de Implementación de Políticas Públicas para la Equidad y el Crecimiento (CIPPEC), both based in Buenos Aires.

The German economic upturn has gained both in terms of strength and breadth. In addition to consumer spending, external trade and investments are now also contributing to economic expansion. These are the conclusions drawn by the economic research institutes in their autumn report for the German federal government. Whereas the very high eco­nomic momentum in the first half of the current year will slow slightly, expansion of economic output this year and next will exceed production capacity growth. As a result, overall capacity utilization will increase, with economic output exceeding potential output. Gross Domestic Product is likely to grow by 1.9 percent this year and by 2 percent in 2018 (calendar-adjusted: 2.2 and 2.1 percent, respectively).

Global value chains can be the world’s engine for development if they are shaped to be inclusive and sustainable, concluded participants of a conference organized by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the Kiel Center for Globalization of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

The Italian economy is stagnating, mainly as a result of outdated labor market structures that have remained largely unaffected by recent reforms—as a new report by researchers of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) reveals. If Italy fails to create more and better paying jobs, especially for young people, and is unable to catch up with the rest of the European economies, the country’s enormous debt will become unsustainable long term.

Germany’s economy is expanding at a faster pace than is healthy for it. According to the current economic forecast by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to grow by 2 per cent this year, 2.2 per cent next year and 2.1 per cent in the year 2019. As a result, the capacity over-utilisation is increasing, making a painful correction at a later date more likely. A sharp increase in economic growth in the euro area argues in favour of the ECB abandoning its low interest rate policy.