Analyzing and Forecasting Migration Flows

In this commissioned report, immigration to and migration from Germany are studied in detail. Employing various data sources, the research team studied the size, composition, and determinants of migration to Germany. A core concept analyzed in the report is the migration potential, i.e., the potential number of people who would like to migrate to Germany if they could. The researchers projected this number for the coming decade using future population estimates for countries of origin and the structural estimates that capture Germany's relative attractiveness as a destination country. The resulting migration flows from different countries of origin were studied in different economic scenarios.