Dr. Jonathan Federle

What are the economic costs of wars, how are they composed, and who bears them? A new study by the Kiel Institute, based on data from more than 150 wars since 1870, shows that the costs are highest for the country in which the war takes place. Buildings, machinery, and infrastructure are destroyed, and growth slows for several years. Yet, war neighbors also pay much of the cost of war as they suffer from higher inflation and decreased output growth. Experience from past wars suggests that Ukraine will lose about USD 120 billion in economic output (GDP) and almost USD 1 trillion in capital stock by 2026. Non-belligerent third countries are expected to face output losses of about USD 250 billion, USD 70 billion of which are borne by the European Union alone.