Working Paper

The Cost of Sanctions: Estimating Lost Trade with Gravity


  • Hinz
  • J.
Publication Date

Economic sanctions are a frequently used tool of foreign policy. Constraining trade flows towards or from the target country is supposed to coerce its government into changing certain policies. However, sanctions constitute an obstacle to trade, thereby affecting flows of all countries, including those of sanctioning countries themselves. I gauge the global impact of three recent sanctions regimes using a structural gravity framework and quantify the “lost trade” in a general equilibrium counterfactual exercise. Each of the episodes, sanctions against Iran, Russia and Myanmar, are instructive in their own way, due to the different nature of bilateral trade and severity of measures applied.

Kiel Institute Expert


JEL Classification
F51, F14, F13, F52

Key Words

  • Embargo
  • foreign policy
  • General equilibrium counterfactuals
  • Sanctions
  • Sanktionen