Working Paper

Model Pooling and Changes in the Informational Content of Predictors: an Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area

Author

  • Tim Schwarzmüller
Publication Date

I study the performance of single predictor bridge equation models as well as a wide range of model selection and pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting euro area GDP growth. I explore to what extent model selection and model pooling techniques are able to outperform a simple autoregressive benchmark model in the periods before, during and after the Great Recession. I find that single predictor bridge equation models suffer a great variation in the forecast performance relative to the benchmark model over the analysed sub-samples. Moreover, model selection techniques turn out to produce quite poor forecasts in some sub-samples. On the contrary, model pooling based on the Cross-Validation and the Mallows criterion provide a very stable and accurate forecast performance.

Info

JEL Classification
C53, E37

Key Words

  • Great Recession
  • Kurzfristprognose
  • mixed frequency data
  • model selection and model pooling
  • Short-term forecasting