Working Paper
Financial Exposure, Exchange Rate Regime and Fear of Floating
We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy where
domestic entrepreneurs face borrowing constraints and finance their investment projects
both in domestic and international capital markets. We parametrize the degree of financial
exposure as the fraction of borrowing expressed in foreign units of denomination,
and study its interaction with alternative exchange rate regimes. We find that a
regime of flexible exchange rates greatly amplifies, relative to fixed rates, the response
to domestic shocks. However, when financial exposure is high investment can fall and
financial conditions can worsen in response to favorable productivity shocks, due to
detrimental balance-sheets effects. Asset price volatility and overall financial instability
are found to be monotonically increasing in financial exposure. In response to a
rise in world interest rates, higher financial exposure greatly worsens the performance
of flexible exchange rates (relative to the case with no exposure), so that the acclaimed
insulating role of the latter (relative to fixed) barely applies to output and vanishes for
financial variables. In general, the higher the degree of financial exposure, the closer
the resemblance between flexible and fixed exchange rates, a result that provides a
theoretical background for a fear-of-floating argument.
Key Words
- Exchange rate regime
- financial exposure
- financial frictions