IMF Outreach Event – WEO Chap. 2
The Great Tightening: Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode

Chapters 2 and 3 of the next IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) will launch on October 16. On the same day, SihwanYang (IMF) will present the chapter The Great Tightening: Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode of the IMF WEO Fall 2024 edition at the Kiel Institute in Berlin. The IMF outreach event will take place as an academic seminar and Q&A at the Berlin office of the Kiel Institute (Chausseestraße 111, 10115 Berlin) from 17:00-18:00 CEST.
IMF World Economic Outlook October 2024, Chapter 2 The Great Tightening: Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode
The recent global inflationary experience was characterized by a complex set of events. During COVID-19 lockdowns, demand shifted towards goods and then pivoted toward services as economies reopened. These demand shifts occurred in the context of supply disruptions, and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. Subsequently, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to spikes in commodity prices. Evidence suggests that the pass-through of sectoral price pressures to core inflation and the steepening of the inflation-slack relationship, i.e., the Phillips curve, were essential to understand the global surge in inflation. This evidence is consistent with key sectors hitting their supply bottlenecks, as demand rotated across sectors and was boosted over time by a drawdown of savings. This chapter studies the interactions between supply bottlenecks and demand pressure through a mix of model-based and empirical analysis, providing new insights for policy rules.
Authors : Jorge Alvarez (co-lead), Emine Boz (co-lead), Thomas Kroen, Alberto Musso, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Nicholas Sander, Sebastian Wende, and Sihwan Yang
Sihwan Yang is an economist at the International Monetary Fund, working on Macroeconomics and International Economics.
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Registration
For registration please contact berlin@ifw-kiel.de