Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch

The research project studies the effects that China’s growing economic engagement has on African economies, and how China’s economic presence is perceived by African citizens. To this effect, the key dimensions of trade, investment, aid, debt, and migration flows from China to Africa (and vice versa) are analyzed.

The Cluster for Economic Research on Africa focuses on enterprises and entrepreneurial potential in African markets, trade and investment policy, and issues of macroeconomic development, stability, and public finance. This research will strengthen evidence-based policy advice for German and European Africa policy and also engage and address African partners.

Populism is one of the main challenges of our time. However, the phenomenon has not been sufficiently researched so far, especially in economics. In particular, there is a lack of sustainable prevention strategies. This project quantifies the electoral results and government participation of populists since 1870.

The Team of the Ukraine Support Tracker introduces a new measure to track foreign government aid to Ukraine – government “allocations”. The data show that total European aid has long overtaken U.S. aid - not only in terms of commitments, but also in terms of specific aid allocations sent to Ukraine. In addition, the approval of the EU's Ukraine Support Facility guarantees further financial assistance. However, the gap between EU commitments and allocations remains very large (€144 billion committed vs. €77 billion allocated). To fully replace U.S. military assistance in 2024, Europe would have to double its current level and pace of arms assistance. These are results from the latest Ukraine Support Tracker update, which now covers aid through January 15, 2024.

The dynamics of support to Ukraine have slowed. Newly committed aid has reached a new low between August to October 2023—an almost 90 percent drop compared to the same period in 2022. Ukraine now increasingly relies on a core group of donors such as the US, Germany, and the Nordic and Eastern European countries that continue to pledge and deliver both financial aid and important weaponry, such as F-16 fighter jets. The outlook is unclear, since the largest pending aid commitment—by the European Union—has not been finally approved, and aid by the US has been on the decline. These are results from the latest Ukraine Support Tracker update, which now covers commitments through October 31, 2023.

Europe has clearly overtaken the United States in promised aid to Ukraine, with total European commitments now being twice as large. A main reason is the EU’s new €50 billion “Ukraine Facility,” but also other European countries have upped their support with new multi-year packages. For the first time since the start of the war, the US is now clearly lagging behind. This is one of the results of the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker.

How has foreign aid to Ukraine evolved in recent months? Could Europe fill the gap, in case US Congress fails to pass another Ukraine support bill? And how does promised aid compare to actually allocated aid to be sent to Ukraine?

The Kiel Institute is hosting a MSC Conversation on the "guns versus butter" question at the Munich Security Conference 2024.

Rigorous research on the link between economics and geopolitics remains scarce. This joint conference will bring together world-leading scholars working at the intersection of geopolitics and (international) economics.