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Think tanks: In inter­national economic policy, IfW ranks number 6 worldwide. more...


The Kiel Institute's Advanced Studies Program 2014/15. more...


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Kiel Institute for the World Economy


World Economy Prize awarded to Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, and Richard Thaler

wwp_2014.jpgAt a shared ceremony with representatives of the state capital Kiel and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Schleswig-Holstein, the Institute for the World Economy (IfW) awarded the World Economy Prize for the tenth time. The prize winners for 2014 are the State President of Liberia and Nobel peace laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the Indian biotechnology entrepreneur Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw and the economic scientist Richard Thaler. more...

Global Growth Picks up only Gradually

Leading indicators suggest some acceleration of world economic activity in the second quarter, although the underlying momentum should remain modest. We expect a gradual further acceleration in the second half of the year and in 2015 All in all we expect world production to rise by 3.5 percent and 3.9 percent this year and next, respectively. more...

Germany Facing Period of Strong Expansion – Increasing Risk of Overheating

German GDP is expected to grow by 2.0 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2015. This is significantly above the economy’s potential growth rate pushing capacitation utilization rates upwards. Next year’s overutilization of production capacities approaches the territory of overheating. The German job engine picks up speed. To a much lesser extent, the job growth coincides with lower unemployment. more...

US employment reaches pre-crisis level but labor market is still weak
US Capitol building Washington DC with rippled flag © Stephen Finn - Fotolia.comThe nonfarm payroll employment level in the United States is now close to its January 2008 pre-crisis level. The consensus forecast expects an increase in employment of roughly 200,000 from April to May of this year. If this forecast turns out to be correct, employment in May will have exceeded its pre-crisis level of 138,365,000 employees, thereby reaching a new all-time high in absolute numbers. However, the fact that employment will have exceeded its pre-crisis level does not indicate strength in the labor market but, rather, ongoing weakness write Nils Jannsen and Claire Reicher in their new Kiel Institute Focus. more...

The ECB’s low interest rate policy: The German economy at risk
ECB  © Özcan Arslan - Fotolia.comMonetary policy has already been too expansionary for the German economy for a number of years now. And due to the unconventional measures, the degree of expansion is even intensified. Consequently, a boom is imminent in Germany which is typically associated with substantial undesirable developments, in particular the misallocation of capital. This increases the risk to financial stability and could lead to a massive economic setback. more...

EU-wide Trade in Emission Certificates Abates Carbon Emissions

air pollution © sharply_done - Fotolia.comThe EU trading system for emission certificates contributed towards a reduction in the level of carbon emissions in the first several years of its existence. Companies required to possess emission certificates have abated their carbon emissions by one fifth more than those not compelled to purchase emission certificates, as Sebastian Petrick and Ulrich Wagner found in their study. They have found no evidence to suggest that the emissions trading system reduces output, the competitiveness or the number of jobs in the participating companies. more...

Business Cycle Forecast

The Kiel Institute's Business Cycle Forecast of Summer from June 12, 2014.

All business cycle forecasts of the Kiel Institute can be found here.


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