Domino Effect in Southern Europe? The Results of a Crisis Test to Greece, Portugal, and Spain
Greece is far from having overcome its economic and financial crisis. On the contrary, it is becoming increasingly clear that it could end up bankrupt. Could the crises in Portugal and Spain really become as acute as the crisis in Greece? The Kiel Institute economists Klaus Schrader and Claus-Friedrich Laaser examine the real economic causes of the crises in Greece, Portugal, and Spain in their new Kiel Discussion Paper. They find that there is little reason, from a real economic perspective, to expect that there will be a domino effect. The nature and history of the crisis in each of the countries is too different, as are the means that the countries have at their disposal to deal with the crises. more...
Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area
The financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis have shown that stress on financial markets is important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Therefore, Björn van Roye derives a financial market stress indicator. The indicator significantly improves forecasting accuracy of real GDP growth for Germany. It also can be used as an early warning indicator of systemically important events. more...
Apply Now for Kiel Institute Summer School 2012
The Kiel Institute Summer School 2012 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy will take place from June 24-30, 2012. Speakers will be Jean-Claude Trichet (former president, ECB), Tommaso Monaceli (Bocconi), Sheri Markose (Essex), and Werner DeBondt (Chicago), Enrique Mendoza (Maryland). more...
Migration: Engine of Development
"A people-centered development agenda requires immigration policies to become more development-friendly. In particular, poor and low-skilled workers from developing countries should be provided with more legal migration opportunities. One option is to establish guest worker programs that provide temporary work and residence permits", write Markus Böhme, Toman Omar Mahmoud and Rainer Thiele in their new essay in the blog Kiel Institute Focus. more...
Sluggish World Economy
Output in the advanced economies is expected to increase very weakly in the winter semester and pick up only gradually in the following quarters. Growth in the emerging economies will be dampened by the weakness of demand in the advanced world, but economic policy stimulus should help growth accelerate again to robust rates over the forecast horizon. Global GDP growth is forecast to decline to 3.5 percent next year from 3.8 percent this year. In 2013 the rate of increase is expected to rise to a still moderate rate of 4 percent. more...
