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Kiel Institute for the World Economy


Trade Liberalisation: Skills Training helps Globalization Losers

Investing @ Rob Friedman – iStockphotoIn a new Kiel Policy Brief IfW researchers Sebastian Braun, Wolfgang Lechthaler and Mariya Mileva show that global trade liberalization actually increases the level of wage inequality. However, the authors also demonstrate through their model-based analysis that adequate skills and job training opportunities for workers can significantly mitigate the effects of trade liberalization on wage inequality. more...

Dr. Jens Weidmann, Deutsche Bundesbank President: high wage increases in Germany will not resolve the issue of imbalances


Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, dismissed calls for substantial wage increases in Germany as a means of reducing economic imbalances in the euro area. On the occasion of the 89th Business Cycle Conference at the Kiel Institute, Weidmann emphasised that, according to calculations by the Deutsche Bundesbank, such wage increases beyond levels justified by domestic labour market conditions would have an impact of “close to zero” on exports of crisis countries in the euro area periphery. more...

World Economy Continues to Improve Despite Headwinds

The global economy is gaining ground since mid-2013. In the advanced economies growth is going to strengthen further this year and next. Economic momentum in the emerging economies by contrast will continue to be held back by structural deficiencies and adverse developments in financial markets. World output should increase by 3.6 percent this year. Growth in 2015 is unchanged at 4 percent. more...

German growth accelerates

Following last year’s weak expansion of 0,4 percent, German GDP is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year and by 2.5 percent next year. Overall capacity utilization is expected to normalize this year. With potential growth estimated at an annual rate of 1,3 percent, next year’s output gap will already exceed the 1-percent-mark. The German economy is expected to create 340 000 new jobs this year and 420 000 new jobs next year. After one and a half year of increasing numbers this will change the course of unemployment back on a downward trend. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 6.7 percent (2014) and 6.5 percent (2015). more...

Euro Area: recovery gains momentum

 Euro Area growth stabilized during the second half of 2013. Our assessment of the business cycle suggests that the recovery continues. Overall, we expect a moderate GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2014. In 2015, the recovery is forecast to gain some momentum so that the increase in output is 1.7 percent. The deterioration of the labor market came to an end during the second half of 2013. Unemployment will be below 12 percent on average in 2014. In 2015, unemployment will decline further to 11.5 percent. more...

Business Cycle Forecast

The Kiel Institute's Business Cycle Forecast of Spring from March 13, 2014.

All business cycle forecasts of the Kiel Institute can be found here.


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