Firm Characteristics and Governance of Business Operations in the PRD, China
Over the past decades of the economic reform process, the institutional governance system in China has undergone a gradual transition from a mainly informal and relation-based one into a more formal and rule-based one. In such a transition economy, not all firms will have equally strong incentives to move from relation-based to more formal governance mechanism, however. more...
The Future of Monetary Policy
Whereas monetary policy in the euro zone is steered centrally by the European Central Bank (ECB), fiscal policy in the euro zone remains solely within the purview of the 17 euro zone countries. At the Kiel Institute Policy Lunch at the Hertie School of Governance, Paul de Grauwe and Joachim Scheide will discuss whether this situation forces the ECB to act differently from the national central banks in the euro zone countries. more...
German Economy Overcomes Recent Stagnancy — Domestic Demand Drives Production above Normal Capacity Levels
The Irish economy relies quite heavily on affiliates of foreign multinational enterprises. In crisis this may have two opposite effects: more stability due to sunk costs, on the other hand, however, those multinationals may be less involved in the local economy. IfW researchers Olivier Godart, Holger Görg and Aoife Hanley investigate the evidence in the Irish economy before and during the crisis from 2006 to 2009. more...
World Economy Picks Up Again, but with Little Momentum
Global economic growth has decelerated significantly towards the end of 2011. While the pace of decline in indicators of global economic activity initially was reminiscent of the dramatic drop in activity indicators in the 2008 financial crisis, there are now signs of a turning point. We maintain our forecast of an increase in global output of 3.4 percent in 2012. For 2013 we still expect a gradual acceleration to 3.9 percent (December forecast: 4.0 percent). However, we now assess the risks to the outlook to be broadly balanced, whereas downside risks were clearly dominating in the outlook last December. more...
Euro Area in Recession
Since autumn 2011 the Euro Area is in recession. Annualized GDP declined by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter and is expected to shrink further in the first quarter of 2012. Our assessment of the business cycle suggests that the recession will be mild. This view is based on the recent improvement of consumer and business confidence indicators as well as reduced financial market stress. Altogether, we expect Euro Area GDP to decrease by 0.2 percent in 2012. In the Euro Area without Germany the economic slump will be more pronounced so that GDP decreases by 0.6 percent. more...
Relying on foreign firms in times of crisis: the case of Ireland
The Irish economy relies quite heavily on affiliates of foreign multinational enterprises. In crisis this may have two opposite effects: more stability due to sunk costs, on the other hand, however, those multinationals may be less involved in the local economy. IfW researchers Olivier Godart, Holger Görg and Aoife Hanley investigate the evidence in the Irish economy before and during the crisis from 2006 to 2009. more...
