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Europe has a long way to go to replace US aid - large gap between commitments and allocations
A new research report explains the methodological update and new results on “aid allocation”. It also contains a discussion on French aid numbers.
The current update (February 16) was presented at a press conference at the Munich Security Conference.
“Thus far, limited transparency required a focus on "commitments”, or the amount of aid promised. With this latest update, the Ukraine Support Tracker has been expanded to track specific aid packages that are allocated or earmarked for delivery in the near future. The "allocations" data provide a much better picture of the aid that is actually arriving in Ukraine,” says Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker and Research Director at the Kiel Institute.
US aid has come to a halt
According to the latest update, US aid commitments and deliveries to Ukraine have essentially come to a halt, given that no new support package has passed the US Congress. European aid, in contrast, continues to grow, both in terms of commitments and in terms of aid “allocations” – meaning aid that has been “allocated” or earmarked for a specific purpose and to be sent to Ukraine in the near term.
The new data reveal a large gap between promised and actual aid flows. As of January 15th, 2024, the European Union and its member states have committed a total of €144 billion in aid, but allocated just €77 billion of this for specific purposes. The volume of total allocated financial aid by the EU (€34 billion) is similar to total allocated military aid (€35.2 billion) and the relative weight of financial vs military have remained roughly similar since early 2022.
“With the final approval of the EU's €50 billion Ukraine facility, financial aid to Ukraine seems assured. This is much less clear with regard to military aid, where the dynamics have slowed,” Trebesch says.
Newly committed military aid of just under € 10 billion - few big donors
Newly pledged military aid (commitments) amounted to €9.8 billion between November 1st, 2023 and January 15th, 2024. In about the same period last year commitments amounted to €27 billion, with €21 of this coming from the US. Current military aid continues to be driven by a few big donors, such as the Nordic countries, Germany, or the UK, while most past donors have promised little or nothing new.
Total new pledges – military, financial, and humanitarian commitments - have somewhat picked up since the last update, totaling €13.8 billion. This number does not include the finalized €50 billion EU package, which had already been announced in 2023 and was therefore already in the dataset.
In the military domain, the data also reveal a big difference between promised and actually allocated aid. Germany remains the largest European military donor, with a total of €17.7 billion in military commitments since February 2022, of which €9.4 have now been allocated to specific military packages sent to Ukraine.
The UK recently announced new military aid of €2.9 billion bringing its total military commitments to €9.1 billion. Of this sum, €4.8 billion have been allocated until mid-January 2024 according to the data.
Looking at the Nordics, Denmark increased its military commitments to the Danish Ukraine Fund by €3.5 billion since November, making it one of the biggest military donor in percent of donor Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Thus far, Denmark has committed €8.4 billion in military aid, of which €4.5 have been allocated. Norway’s €6.6 billion multi-year Nansen program continues to steer funds for military purposes such as air defense and ammunition, with total military allocations now around €1 billion.
EU military support a question of political will
It is highly uncertain whether the US will send further military aid in 2024. Although the Senate has just approved a new aid package, it has yet to be passed in the House of Representatives. The last remaining funds for US military assistance have been depleted by end-2023. In total the US has allocated around €43 billion in military aid since February 2022, which is about €2 billion per month.
Trebesch says: “Europe will have to at least double its current military support efforts in case there is no further support from the United States. This is a challenge, but ultimately a question of political will. The EU countries are among the richest in the world and so far they have spent not even 1 percent of their 2021 GDP to support Ukraine.”
About the Ukraine Support Tracker
The Ukraine Support Tracker tracks and quantifies military, financial, and humanitarian assistance pledged to Ukraine since January 24, 2022 (currently through Ocotber 31, 2023). Included are 41 countries, specifically the EU member states, the other members of the G7, Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, Turkey, China, Taiwan, India, and Iceland. It includes pledges made by the governments of these countries to the Ukrainian government; aid pledged by the EU Commission and the European Investment Bank is listed separately; private donations or those from international organizations such as the IMF are not included in the main database. Nor does it include aid to Ukraine's neighbors, such as Moldova, or to other countries, such as for the reception of refugees.
Data sources include official government announcements and international media reports. Aid in kind, such as medical supplies, food, or military equipment, is estimated using market prices or information from previous relief operations. In cases of doubt, the higher available value is used. The Ukraine Support Tracker is constantly being expanded, corrected and improved. Feedback and comments on our methodology paper and dataset are very welcome. You can reach us at ukrainetracker@ifw-kiel.de or use our online feedback form.
More information and all detailed data can be found on the Ukraine Support Tracker webpage.
