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Subject Dossier

Economic Outlook

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas

Economic Outlook Germany

GERMANY

Economic Outlook Euro-Area

EURO-AREA

Economic Outlook

Full recovery will soon be within reach

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2021

KKB 76: One year after the start of the pandemic, lockdown measures and behavioural changes still weigh on economic activity in the euro area.

Economic Outlook World

WORLD

Economic Outlook

Post-corona-boom underway

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
06/2021

KKB 79: The global economy remained on track in the first months of 2021, despite surging covid-19 infections and renewed containment measures in many countries. ...

Key Indicators | GERMANY

GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by the Federal Employment Agency.


Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Fachserie 18, Series 1.2; Federal Employment Agency, Monthly Bulletin; Federal Employment Agency, Employment Statistics

Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast

  2019 2020 2021 2022
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 0.6 -4.8 3.9 4.8
Gross domestic product, deflator 2.2 1.6 2.2 1.7
Consumer prices 1.4 0.5 2.6 1.9
Labor productivity (per hour worked) -0.0 -0.0 2.0 0.9
Employment (1000 persons) 45,269 44,818 44,804 45,565
Unemployment rate (percent) 5.0 5.9 5.8 5.3
in relation to nominal GDP      
Public sector net lending 1,5 -4.5 -4.9 -1.4
Gross public debt 59.5 69.7 70.2 66.6
Current account balance 7.1 7.3 6.9 6.4

Key Indicator | EURO-AREA

GDP, consumer prices: percentage change on previous year.

Source: Eurostat

Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast

  2019 2020 2021 2022
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 1.3 -6.8 5.3 4.4
Consumer prices 1.2 0.3 2.0 1.7
Unemployment rate (percent) 7.5 8.0 8.0 7.1
in relation to nominal GDP      
Public sector net lending -0.6 -7.3 -6.8 -3.5
Current account balance 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.2

Key Indicator | WORLD

Real GDP and consumer prices in selected countries and regions, 2020–2022

Weighted according to GDP at PPP rates. East Asia: Emerging Asia excluding China and India.

Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.

Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

  Gross domestic product Consumer prices
  2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
United States -3.5 6.7 4.1 1.2 4.0 2.7
Japan -4.7 2.7 2.2 0.0 0.5 0.8
Euro Area -6.6 5.3 4.4 0.3 2.0 1.7
United Kingdom -9.8 6.8 4.6 0.9 1.7 1.9
Advanced economies -4.7 5.7 3.9 0.8 2.7 2.1
China 2.3 8.7 5.7 2.5 1.3 2.3
Latin America -7.0 6.3 3.6 8.1 10.2 7.1
India -7.0 11.0 8.6 6.6 5.2 5.7
East Asia -4.5 5.2 6.2 1.1 2.4 2.6
Russia -2.6 2.7 2.3 3.6 4.7 4.0
Africa -1.1 4.2 4.5 7.9 9.4 8.9
World economy -3.2 6.7 4.8 3.3 4.1 3.9
             
Addenum: World trade volume -5.3 9.9 3.3 . . .
Oil price (Brent in USD/Barrel) 41.8 67.9 72.5 . . .
World economy, weighted according to GDP at 2019 market exchange rates -3.8 6.5 4.6 2.4 3.6 3.2

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose 1/2021

Joint Economic Forecast

Economic Outlook

Recovery ready for second take off

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
03/2021

KKB 77: The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has interrupted the recovery in Germany. GDP is set to decline in the first quarter of this year, after stagnating in the...

Economic Outlook

Second Covid wave interrupts recovery

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
12/2020

The recovery of the German economy is interrupted. The main reasons are the second Covid wave and the shutdown measures that have been implemented since November. ...

Economic Outlook

Full recovery will soon be within reach

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2021

KKB 76: One year after the start of the pandemic, lockdown measures and behavioural changes still weigh on economic activity in the euro area.

Economic Outlook

Bumpy ride back to normal

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2020

KKB 70: Economic output in the Euro area declined by 15 percent in the first half of 2020. In the meantime, member states have gradually lifted restrictions that contain...

Economic Outlook

Euro area faces recession

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2020

KKB 64: The spread of the corona virus poses major challenges for the euro area economy. Sentiment indicators for February still point to a supposed rise in momentum. ...

Economic Outlook

Euro area economy robust, but with low momentum

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2019

KKB 58: The euro area economy is currently expanding at a moderate pace. The underlying momentum has slowed noticeably since early 2018, which is mainly attributable to...

Economic Outlook

Post-corona-boom underway

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
06/2021

KKB 79: The global economy remained on track in the first months of 2021, despite surging covid-19 infections and renewed containment measures in many countries. ...

Economic Outlook

Global economic recovery progresses overall

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
12/2020

In the third quarter of 2020, the global economy rebounded strongly from the steep fall in output suffered in the first half of the year amid the covid-19 pandemic. ...

Economic Outlook

Gradual recovery after partial rebound

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
09/2020

KKB 69: The world economy contracted by close to 10 percent in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-10 pandemic unfolded.  After a 3 percent drop in activity in the first...