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Subject Dossier

Economic Outlook

Our most recent forecasts for Germany, the Euro Area and the World Economy as well as current commentary on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas.

+ + + Upcoming Forecast: June 15, 2022 + + +

Economic Outlook Germany

GERMANY

Economic Outlook Euro-Area

EURO AREA

Economic Outlook World

WORLD

Key Indicators | GERMANY

Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast

  2020 2021 2022 2023
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted -4.6 2.9 2.1 3.5
Gross domestic product, deflator 1.6 3.0 2.9 3.3
Consumer prices 0.5 3.1 5.8 3.4
Labor productivity (per hour worked) 0.4 0.9 -0,1 2.2
Employment (1000 persons) 44,898 44,920 45,508 45,735
Unemployment rate (percent) 5.9 5.7 4.9 4.7
in relation to nominal GDP      
Public sector net lending -4.3 -3.7 -2.5 -2.0
Gross public debt 69.1 69.4 68.0 65.1
Current account balance 7.1 7.4 4.1 4.6
GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by the Federal Employment Agency.
Source: Federal Statistical Office, Fachserie 18, Series 1.2; Federal Employment Agency, Monthly Bulletin; Federal Employment Agency, Employment Statistics; shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.

Key Indicator | EURO AREA

Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast

  2020 2021 2022 2023
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted -6.4 5.3 2.8 3.1
Consumer prices 0.3 2.6 5.2 2.8
Unemployment rate (percent) 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.3
in relation to nominal GDP      
Public sector net lending -7.2 -5.7 -3.7 -2.8
Current account balance 1.8 2.7 1.8 2.2
Infotext GDP, consumer prices: percentage change on previous year. Source: Eurostat Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast

Key Indicator | WORLD

Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.

Real GDP and consumer prices in selected countries and regions, 2021–2023

  Gross domestic product Consumer prices
  2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
United States 5.7 3.1 2.2 4.7 6.9 3.0
Japan 1.7 1.0 1.8 -0.2 1.8 1.0
Euro Area 5.3 2.8 3.1 2.6 5.3 2.9
United Kingdom 7.5 2.5 1.0 2.6 5.6 3.1
Advanced economies 5.2 2.7 2.5 3.2 5.5 2.8
China 8.1 4.8 5.2 1.1 1.8 2.3
Latin America 6.2 2.3 2.4 10.5 11.7 9.1
India 8.1 9.2 7.7 5.1 6.3 5.4
East Asia 3.1 5.2 5.5 1.9 3.0 2.8
Russia 4.7 -4.5 -2.6 5.9 25.0 18.0
Africa 4.4 3.8 3.8 15.5 11.0 8.5
World economy 5.8 3.5 3.6 4.7 7.2 5.2
             
Addenum: World trade volume 10.3 0.5 1.7 . . .
Oil price (Brent in USD/Barrel) 70.8 99.9 87.8 . . .
World economy, weighted according to GDP at 2020 market exchange rates 5.7 3.2 3.2 4.0 6.1 4.1
Weighted according to GDP at 2020 PPP rates. — East Asia: Emerging Asia excluding China and India. — Shaded: Kiel Institute forecast.
Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Joint Economic Forecast

  1. Economic Outlook

    Full recovery will soon be within reach

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
    03/2021

    KKB 76: One year after the start of the pandemic, lockdown measures and behavioural changes still weigh on economic activity in the euro area.

    ...
  2. Economic Outlook

    Bumpy ride back to normal

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
    09/2020

    KKB 70: Economic output in the Euro area declined by 15 percent in the first half of 2020. In the meantime, member states have gradually lifted...

  1. Economic Outlook

    Post-corona-boom underway

    Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World
    06/2021

    KKB 79: The global economy remained on track in the first months of 2021, despite surging covid-19 infections and renewed containment measures in...