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29.05.2017
 
 
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Forecasting Center

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Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2017: Upturn in Germany Strengthens in Spite of Global Economic Risks.

Hafen Hamburg pixabay cc0The German economy is already in the fifth year of a moderate upturn. According to the Gemeinschaftsdiagnose (GD, joint economic forecast) that was prepared by Germany’s five leading economic research institutes on behalf of the Federal Government, capacity utilization is gradually increasing, and aggregate production capacities are now likely to have slightly exceeded their normal utilisation levels. Read more...

 


Economic Outlook: Broad-based Expansion in Germany

Crane lifting bis container in yard © bugphai – iStockphotoAs it enters its fifth year, Germany's recovery remains robust. Various early indicators are trending clearly upward, and industrial order books are full. GDP growth in 2017 is likely to be 1.7 percent, before rising to 2.0 percent in 2018. Growth is no longer being driven solely by consumer spending. Inflation is ex-pected to reach 1.8 percent this year. 
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Europe´s Economy on a Solid Growth Path

LKW mit Container im Hamburger Hafen © thomaslerchphoto - Fotolia.comTen of the most respected economic forecasting and research institutes in Europe, including the Kiel Institute, see Europe´s economy on a solid growth path. According to a joint forecast, gross domestic product in the euro area should continue to grow moderately in the coming two years and unemployment will fall. Inflation should remain at 1.4 per cent, well below the target value of the European Central Bank. In a detailed analysis of the Brexit, the institutes consider significant possible consequences in the long run.
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Extended QE adds risks for financial stability

Draghi_Monetary Dialogue_(c) European Union 2016_Source EP.jpgThe essence of the most recent extension of the ECB’s QE programme boils down to “more of the same for longer”, making the time dimension the key factor with respect to risks for financial stability. While the extra nine months are not a game changer, the distortive allocative side-effects of artificially low interest rates grow with the length of the extraordinary monetary policy stance. These findings were given by researchers of the Kiel Institute to the European Parliament for their Monetary Dialogue with the ECB. The analysis also focused on a view below the macroeconomic surface.
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Economic Forecast: Inflation Close to 2% by 2018

© Smileus - Fotolia.comDespite global uncertainty, researchers at the Kiel Institute keep their forecast for GDP growth in Germany of 1.9 percent for the current year and 1.7 percent in 2017. The main drivers remain investment in construction and consumer spending. The global economy has now bottomed out. Oil prices will likely remain low. Read more...

  


Improve efficiency and stability of the European economy

Finanzplatz Frankfurt_2© European Union 2012 EP.jpgBreaking the bank-sovereign nexus is central in order to eliminate financial fragmentation in Europe and would improve stability and efficiency of the European economy. This finding was given to the European Parliament in an advisory mandate from the Kiel Institute. Further initiatives to weaken this link could include exposure limits for government bonds, a carefully designed joint deposit insurance scheme and implementing the envisaged Capital Market Union. Read the full analysis (external website)...

 


Bridging the Brexit

Brexit 8 © EU.jpgFollowing the Brexit vote and a tough-talking Theresa May at the Tory Conference, some in Brussels seem inclined to set an exemplary warning. That would be the worst possible response. What we need is a spirit of maximum cooperation that builds bridges for the UK, writes Stefan Kooths, Head of the Kiel Institute Forecasting Center, in a Kiel Institute Focus.
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The Kiel Institute mourns for Prof. Dr. Klaus-Werner Schatz

Klaus-Werner Schatz © christina kloodt fotografieThe Kiel Institute for the World Economy mourns for Prof. Dr. Klaus-Werner Schatz. For many long years, he headed the Institute's Research in Business Cycles; he served as the President’s deputy and was, both nationally and internationally, a highly regarded and sought-after expert. 
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