We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warnin

We establish a causal role for banking access in the spread of the Industrial Revolution over the period 1817–1881 by exploiting unique employment data from 10,528 parishes across England and Wales and a novel instrument. We estimate that a one...

We introduce the Africa Debt Database (ADD), the most granular and comprehensive (public) dataset to date on the terms of external public debt of countr

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds

China’s lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China’s loans, also the asso

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds

This article summarizes insights from the 36th Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF36) on the magnitude and distribution of economic adjustment costs of gre

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitati

Using repeated cross-sectional survey data, we analyze whether China's growing economic engagement in Latin America has an effect on citizens’ perceptions of China within 18 Latin American countries over the 2002–2013 period. Our...

We analyze the effects of government spending in a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions featuring endogenous growth through learning-by-doing and skill loss from longterm unemployment.