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185 Results

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    • Publications (185)
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  • Research: Forecasting and Business Cycle Analysis
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  1. Publication

    International Transmission and Business Cycle Effects of Financial Stress

    01.08.2014

    We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on global economic activity. Our analysis is based on country-specific monthly financial stress indices (FSIs) over the sample period 1970-2012 for 20 major economies....

  2. Publication

    The Role of Labor Market Institutions in the Great Recession

    01.09.2010

    The recent Great Recession had very heterogeneous effects on the labor markets in industrialized countries. We analyze the role of three labor market institutions in this context, namely the level of firing costs, the existence of short-time work and...

  3. Publication

    A Reappraisal of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff

    01.01.2005

    This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation–unemployment tradeoff, based on frictional growth, describing the interplay between nominal frictions and money growth. When the money supply grows in the presence of price inertia (due to staggered...

  4. Publication

    Unions Power, Collective Bargaining and Optimal Monetary Policy

    01.01.2009

    We study the design of optimal monetary policy (Ramsey policies) in a model with sticky prices and unionized labour markets. Collective wage bargaining and unions monopoly power tend to dampen wage fluctuations and to amplify employment fluctuations...

  5. Publication

    Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment

    31.08.2020

    We embed human capital-based endogenous growth into a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and skill obsolescence

  6. Publication

    Zur Bedeutung der Automobilindustrie für die deutsche Wirtschaft

    17.07.2019

    Volkswirtschaften spezialisieren sich typischerweise entlang ihrer komparativen Vorteile auf die Produktion bestimmter Güter. Dadurch können sie Vorte

  7. Publication

    Bayesian Analysis of Static and Dynamic Factor Models: An Ex-Post Approach towards the Rotation Problem

    01.01.2016

    Due to their indeterminacies, static and dynamic factor models require identifying assumptions to guarantee uniqueness of the parameter estimator. The indeterminacy of the parameter estimator with respect to an orthogonal transformation is known as...

  8. Publication

    Staggered Wages, Sticky Prices, and Labor Market Dynamics in Matching Models

    01.03.2014

    This paper estimates a search and matching model using Bayesian methods. We deviate from the existing literature in two ways. First, we provide a cross-country analysis by estimating the model for the United States and Australia. We document...

  9. Publication

    State-dependence vs. Time-dependence: An Empirical Multi-Country Investigation of Price Sluggishness

    01.02.2014

    In this paper we empirically investigate the time- and state-dependent behavior of aggregate price setting. We implement a testing procedure by means of a nonparametric representation of the structural form New Keynesian Phillips curve. By means of...

  10. Publication

    Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment

    01.10.2015

    Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time...

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