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185 Results

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  • Research: Forecasting and Business Cycle Analysis
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  1. Publication

    Inflation expectations: quo vadis?

    31.01.2022

    Against the backdrop of the recent surge in inflation, we discuss available measures of inflation expectations and implications for monetary policy in t

  2. Publication

    Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment

    31.08.2020

    We embed human capital-based endogenous growth into a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and skill obsolescence

  3. Publication

    Extreme weather events and economic activity: The case of low water levels on the Rhine river

    30.04.2020

    In this paper, we exploit exogenous variation in navigability of the Rhine river to analyze the impact of weather-related supply shocks on economic acti

  4. Publication

    Zur Bedeutung der Automobilindustrie für die deutsche Wirtschaft

    17.07.2019

    Volkswirtschaften spezialisieren sich typischerweise entlang ihrer komparativen Vorteile auf die Produktion bestimmter Güter. Dadurch können sie Vorte

  5. Publication

    Post-crisis business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy

    18.10.2018

    Business investment in the euro area strongly declined during the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. It has not yet rebounded to its pre-crisis trend despite the very expansionary monetary policy measures of the ECB. We analyze...

  6. Publication

    Forecasting with large datasets: Agregating before, during or after the estimation

    18.09.2018

    We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large data forecasting approaches. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem ev

  7. Publication

    How the Baby Boomers' Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates

    08.06.2018

    This paper illustrates, based on an example, the importance of consistency between empirical measurement and the concept of variables in estimated macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and...

  8. Publication

    The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. a High Inflation Environment

    01.04.2018

    The standard search model of unemployment predicts, under realistic assumptions about household preferences, that disembodied technological progress leads to higher steady-state unemployment. This prediction is at odds with the 1970s experience of...

  9. Publication

    Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: An Assessment Based on a Literature Survey

    01.12.2017

    The ECB has adopted a variety of unconventional monetary policy measures since the Global Financial Crisis. In this paper, we assess the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy measures based on a review of the empirical literature and on...

  10. Publication

    Productivity in Germany – Measurability and Development (in German)

    15.11.2017

    KBW 12: The trend decline of productivity growth in Germany is not due to a single cause but is the result of the interplay of multiple factors with time-varying relative importance.

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