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6 Results

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    • Publications (6)
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    • Business Cycle (2)
    • Business Cycle World (2)
    • Behavioral Economics (1)
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    • Journal Article (4)
    • Working Paper (2)
  • Research

    • Forecasting and Business Cycle Analysis (6)
    • Macroeconomic Research (6)
    • Macroeconomic Policies over the Business Cycle (1)
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    • Stephen Sacht (6)
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Journal Article

Animal Spirits and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Moment Matching

01.02.2016

In this article, we empirically examine a hybrid New-Keynesian model with heterogeneous bounded rational agents who may adopt an optimistic or pessimistic attitude—so called animal spirits—toward future movements of the output and inflation gap. The...

Journal Article

Some Observations in the High-Frequency Versions of a Standard New-Keynesian Model

01.01.2014

In a small-scale New-Keynesian model with a hybrid Phillips curve and IS equation, the paper is concerned with an arbitrary frequency of the agents' synchronized decision making. It investigates the validity of a fundamental methodological precept...

Journal Article

Moment Matching versus Bayesian Estimation: Backward-Looking Behaviour in the New-Keynesian Baseline Model

01.01.2015

The paper considers an elementary New-Keynesian three-equation model and compares its Bayesian estimation based on conventional priors to the results from the method of moments (MM), which seeks to match a finite set of the model-generated second...

Working Paper

Identification of Animal Spirits in a Bounded Rationality Model: An Application to the Euro Area

01.10.2012

In this paper we empirically examine a heterogenous bounded rationality version of a hybrid New-Keynesian model. The model is estimated via the simulated method of moments using Euro Area data from 1975Q1 to 2009Q4. It is generally assumed that...

Working Paper

Estimating a High-Frequency New-Keynesian Phillips Curve

01.03.2011

This paper estimates a high-frequency New Keynesian Phillips curve via the Generalized Method of Moments. Allowing for higher-thanusual frequencies strongly mitigates the well-known problems of smallsample biases and structural breaks. Applying a...

Journal Article

Estimating a High-Frequency New-Keynesian Phillips Curve

01.03.2014

This paper estimates a high-frequency New Keynesian Phillips curve via the Generalized Method of Moments. Allowing for higher-than-usual frequencies strongly mitigates the problems of small-sample bias and structural breaks. Applying a daily...

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