6 Results enter search term Search Reset filter Suchfilter Content Type Publications (6) Topics Business Cycle (2) Business Cycle Euro Area (1) Business Cycle World (1) Economic & Financial Crises (1) European Union & Euro (1) Monetary Policy (1) Publicationtype Working Paper (6) Units Forecasting and Business Cycle Analysis (6) Macroeconomic Policy under Market Imperfections (6) Forecasting Center (4) International Macroeconomics (3) Economic Outlook (1) Macroeconomic Policies over the Business Cycle (1) Experts Jens Boysen-Hogrefe (6) Christian Aßmann (3) Nils Jannsen (3) Carsten-Patrick Meier (2) Markus Pape (1) Date Last Month Last Year Select Period start date to end date Sort by Relevance Date Aktive Filter Content Type: Publications Publicationtype: Working Paper Units: Forecasting and Business Cycle Analysis Experts: Jens Boysen-Hogrefe Remove all filters Working Paper A Note on Banking and Housing Crises and the Strength of Recoveries 01.01.2015 We investigate whether recoveries following normal recessions differ from recoveries following recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounce-back in the level... Working Paper Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area - an empirical assessment 01.02.2014 Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time... Working Paper Costs of Housing Crises: International Evidence 01.06.2009 This paper analyzes the costs of housing crises in terms of GDP growth and the economic conditions under which crises are particularly costly. Working Paper The Directional Identification Problem in Bayesian Factor Analysis: An Ex-Post Approach 17.10.2012 Due to their well-known indeterminacies, factor models require identifying assumptions to guarantee unique parameter estimates. For Bayesian estimation, these identifying assumptions are usually implemented by imposing constraints on certain model... Working Paper The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not 01.02.2010 This paper provides empirical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that... Working Paper Reproducing business cycle features in Germany - an evaluation for the need of nonlinear models 01.06.2009 There exists a wide literature starting by Hess and Iwata (1997) on the issue whether nonlinear time series models are needed to reproduce business cycle features.