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* 18 Results

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    • Publications (18)
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    • Working Paper (9)
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  1. Publication

    Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?

    01.03.2014

    This paper examines financial professionals’ overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individuals’ self-rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample...

  2. Publication

    Primary balance and debt projections based on estimated fiscal reaction functions for euro area countries

    01.04.2014

    We project the path of the public debt and primary surpluses for a number of countries in the euro area under a fiscal rule based on a set of estimated fiscal policy reaction functions. Our fiscal rule represents a fiscal analogue to a well-known...

  3. Publication

    The Impact of Seasonal and Price Adjustments on the Predictability of German GDP Revisions

    01.01.2012

    Releases of the GDP are subject to revisions over time. This paper examines the predictability of German GDP revisions using forecast rationality tests. Previous studies of German GDP covering data until 1997 finds that revisions of real seasonally...

  4. Publication

    Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions

    01.01.2008

    In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators:...

  5. Publication

    Multifractal Models in Finance: Their Origin, Propterties, and Applications

    01.08.2013

    This chapter provides an overview over the recently developed so called multifractal (MF) approach for modeling and forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and...

  6. Publication

    Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach

    01.01.2012

    This paper estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a ‘canonical’ stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983; Lux, 1995, 2007). This framework is applied to a...

  7. Publication

    Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach

    01.02.2009

    This paper estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a ‘canonical’ stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983; Lux, 1995, 2007). This framework is applied to a...

  8. Publication

    Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?

    01.02.2007

    In this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important...

  9. Publication

    A Model for Real-time Data Assessment and Forecasting

    01.01.2005

    In this paper we propose a model that describes the regularities of the revision process for real-time macroeconomic data. This model takes the typical publication process of statistical agencies into account: after an initial release, revisions are...

  10. Publication

    Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area

    16.11.2011

    The financial crisis 2008-2009 and the European sovereign debt crisis have shown that stress on financial markets is important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably...

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