This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical...

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical...

Sluggish adjustment of expectations to new information is rational in an environment characterized by information costs and signal-to-noise problems. This paper investigates the role of such information rigidities for exchange rate expectations using...

It is often emphasized that the primary economic solution to climate change is the introduction of a carbon pricing system (tax or tradable permits) anchored to the social cost of carbon. This standard argument, however, misses the fact that if...

It is believed that the primary economic solution to climate change is an introduction of a carbon pricing system anchored to the social cost of carbon, either as a form of tax or tradable permits. Potentially significant externalities accompanying...

Policymakers use forecasts to project the consequences of particular policy decisions for certain policy targets. This chapter investigates the use of economic forecasting in policy making by discussing practical examples, providing new empirical...

This paper estimates a series of shocks to hit the US economy during the Great Depression, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the cyclical...

Recent research has shown that agreements centered on the adoption of breakthrough technologies can break the deadlock in international climate negotiations if the mitigation technology exhibits a network externality that transforms full cooperation...

This paper investigates the relevance of the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and Carroll (2003) for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). As opposed to the benchmark rational expectation...