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    • Publications (9)
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  • Tags: expectations
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  1. Publication

    Information rigidities and exchange rate expectations

    01.07.2020

    Sluggish adjustment of expectations to new information is rational in an environment characterized by information costs and signal-to-noise problems. This paper investigates the role of such information rigidities for exchange rate expectations using...

  2. Publication

    Expectations, Monetary Policy, and Labor Markets: Lessons from the Great Depression

    01.09.2009

    This paper estimates a series of shocks to hit the US economy during the Great Depression, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the cyclical...

  3. Publication

    European inflation expectations dynamics

    01.01.2005

    This paper investigates the relevance of the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and Carroll (2003) for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). As opposed to the benchmark rational expectation...

  4. Publication

    Climate Policy as Expectation Management?

    01.05.2010

    It is believed that the primary economic solution to climate change is an introduction of a carbon pricing system anchored to the social cost of carbon, either as a form of tax or tradable permits. Potentially significant externalities accompanying...

  5. Publication

    Expectation-Driven Climate Treaties with Breakthrough Technologies

    01.09.2011

    Recent research has shown that agreements centered on the adoption of breakthrough technologies can break the deadlock in international climate negotiations if the mitigation technology exhibits a network externality that transforms full cooperation...

  6. Publication

    Climate Policy as Expectation Management?

    01.02.2011

    It is often emphasized that the primary economic solution to climate change is the introduction of a carbon pricing system (tax or tradable permits) anchored to the social cost of carbon. This standard argument, however, misses the fact that if...

  7. Publication

    The importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations

    01.01.2012

    This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical...

  8. Publication

    The importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations

    01.01.2011

    This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical...

  9. Publication

    Forecasting and Policy Making

    01.08.2013

    Policymakers use forecasts to project the consequences of particular policy decisions for certain policy targets. This chapter investigates the use of economic forecasting in policy making by discussing practical examples, providing new empirical...

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