Ukraine Support Tracker: Aid Could Drop Significantly From 2025

In total, Ukraine received approximately €14.6 billion in aid allocations from Western donor countries during the summer months of July and August. However, the type of aid varied significantly between months.

In July, the majority of aid, totaling €5.5 billion, was military in nature. In contrast, August saw a focus on financial aid for economic stabilization and reconstruction, with €7.9 billion allocated. A major contribution came from the EU’s Ukraine Facility, which provided €2.8 billion in loans and €1.5 billion in grants. The US contributed €3.5 billion in financial aid, primarily through the World Bank. By comparison, humanitarian aid remained modest, with €0.2 billion in July and less than €0.1 billion in August.

“Reconstruction aid and humanitarian aid are crucial, but these purposes remain surprisingly small. With the nearing winter, Western countries should start ramping up their help on reconstruction, especially of critical infrastructure and energy systems targeted by Russia,” says Pietro Bomprezzi, project lead of the Ukraine Support Tracker at the Kiel Institute.

However, starting next year, Ukraine could face a significant shortfall in aid. A new US President Donald Trump could block further aid packages in Congress. Additionally, Germany announced recently to cut its budgetary allocation by 50 percent, other European donors might follow. European aid could then be replaced with NATO contributions or loans based on the proceeds from frozen Russian assets.

Estimations based on recent trends in aid allocations show that, if Western donors maintain their current level of effort, total aid next year would amount to just over €100 billion, with almost €59 billion in military aid and €54 billion in financial support.

Without new US aid packages, military aid could drop to around €34 billion, while financial aid would fall to around €46 billion. Should European donors also scale back their efforts and follow Germany’s recent announcement to halve their contributions, military aid would shrink to just €29 billion, with financial aid dropping to approximately €27 billion. Under this scenario, total aid to Ukraine could therefore be halved to around €55 billion.

Additional funding vehicles like recently discussed new NATO-coordinated contributions could provide €40 billion in military aid. Loans based on the proceeds from frozen Russian assets are for now in discussion to equal up to €45 billion, most of which would be for direct financial assistance.

“The recently discussed new funding vehicles aren’t particularly large. If they are approved, they would offer valuable assistance but could prove to be just stopgap measures,” says Bomprezzi. “As of now these funds would not fully replace the steady bilateral aid that Ukraine needs.”

About the Ukraine Support Tracker

The Ukraine Support Tracker tracks and quantifies military, financial, and humanitarian assistance pledged to Ukraine since January 24, 2022. Included are 41 countries, specifically the EU member states, the other members of the G7, Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, Turkey, China, Taiwan, India, and Iceland. It includes pledges made by the governments of these countries to the Ukrainian government; aid pledged by the EU Commission and the European Investment Bank is listed separately; private donations or those from international organizations such as the IMF are not included in the main database. Nor does it include aid to Ukraine's neighbors, such as Moldova, or to other countries, such as for the reception of refugees.

Data sources include official government announcements and international media reports. Aid in kind, such as medical supplies, food, or military equipment, is estimated using market prices or information from previous relief operations. In cases of doubt, the higher available value is used. The Ukraine Support Tracker is constantly being expanded, corrected and improved. Feedback and comments on our methodology paper and dataset are very welcome. You can reach us at ukrainetracker@ifw-kiel.de  or use our online feedback form. 

More information and all detailed data can be found on the Ukraine Support Tracker webpage.