The (Trading)Costs of a Non-EU (in German)
The authors sketch the economic costs for EU member countries in case of a reversal of the integration process by dissolving the EU Customs Union, the European Single Market, the European Currency Union, the Schengen Agreement, and the Regional Trade Agreements with third parties. They reveal that dissolving the EU Single Market would exert the strongest negative effects on production, trade, and income of EU member countries. Central and Eastern European countries would be severely affected by over proportionally high losses, whereas established members like Germany, France, or Italy would suffer below-average. All the other steps of disintegration examined in the paper would lead to lesser costs that nevertheless would be perceptible, because the predicted losses would occur year by year after the disintegration shock.