Economic Outlook

Reduced momentum in the world economy

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World, Nr. 51 (2019 | Q1)

The world economy has lost steam in the second half of the previous year and is likely to continue to expand at a subdued pace in 2019. Uncertainty regarding the trade conflicts with the US, the future relationship between the EU and the UK, and the extent of the slowdown of the Chinese economy continue to weigh on the global economy. Against this backdrop, global growth is likely to be curbed considerably compared to the previous two years. However, in light of continuously expansive monetary and fiscal policy we do not expect a sharp downturn. We project world economic growth at a rate of 3.3 percent both this and next year, after 3.7 percent in 2018. Despite this deceleration, capacity utilization is likely to remain elevated especially in advanced economies, and unemployment will continue to decline.