Economic Outlook

World economy: Continued expansion amid increased uncertainties

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World, Nr. 27 (2017 | Q1)

The world economy has gained traction in the course of 2016 despite elevated policy uncertainty and seems to have picked up further in the beginning of 2017. The change in the US government apparently has led to expectations of substantial policy stimulus, while a competitive valuation of currencies supports growth in Europe and Japan. In the emerging countries, the trend towards weakening economies has been arrested in the course of last year and the outlook is for a gradual acceleration of growth. Growth in global output—at PPP—should increase to 3.5 percent and 3.6 percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively, up from 3.1 percent last year and unchanged from our December forecast. Risks to the forecast are, however, prominent, partly related to the fact that the new US government has heralded sweeping policy changes but so far not been sufficiently concrete with its plans.