Economic Outlook

Stubborn weakness in the world economy

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook World, Nr. 13 (2015 | Q4)

Global growth slowed in 2015. While we forecast the world economy to gradually gain momentum over the coming two years, the upturn is expected to be slow. PPP-weighted global GDP is expected to increase by 3.1 per cent this year followed by 3.4 and 3.8 per cent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Thus we have reduced our September forecast for 2015 and 2016 by a quarter of a percentage point, whereas the outlook for 2017 has improved slightly. The expansion in advanced economies continues to strengthen gradually as accommodative monetary policies, a pick-up in wages and higher real incomes due to cheaper oil will boost private consumption and investment against the background of improved financial balances in the private sector. In emerging economies, lower commodity prices and structural problems will continue to weigh on growth, although we expect growth in this group of countries to pick up somewhat over the forecast horizon.