Saving Greece once again: Have we Reached the Root of the Crisis?

The authors analyze the economic development in Greece against the backdrop of the third economic adjustment program. The authors reveal that Greece neither overcame its structural weaknesses nor developed export industries as a driver of growth in the course of reforms. They conclude that Greece’s sectoral structures still mirror a low level of industrial development and its service industry suffers from a below-average growth performance compared to other EU countries. The analysis also shows that without significant growth, the Greek debt will remain unsustainable. However, in the authors’ opinion a haircut or a phasing out of the debt burden can only complement supply-oriented structural reforms. The Memorandum of Understanding of August 2015 comprises a suitable reform agenda although it raises a feeling of déjà vu and also raises severe doubts that the Greek decision makers and their administration possess the political will and the capability to implement the reforms without large-scale external pressure and support.