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127 Results

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    • Business Cycle (127)
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Economic Outlook

Second Covid wave interrupts recovery

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany
12/2020
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Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler ...

The recovery of the German economy is interrupted. The main reasons are the second Covid wave and the shutdown measures that have been...

Brief

Entwicklung der US-Industrie: Kein Trump-Effekt erkennbar

10/2020
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Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber

Trump has failed with his campaign promises to achieve complete revitalization of the US manufacturing industry. His economic policy...

Policy Article

Aligning fiscal policy with foresight

Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik
10/2020
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Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Gabriel Felbermayr, Stefan Kooths ...

KBW 30: The authors note that, although public budgets showed significant surpluses before the Corona crisis, both revenues and...

Economic Outlook

Joint Economic Forecast 2/20: Recovery Loses Momentum - Economy and Politics Still Shaped by the Pandemic

Joint Economic Forecast
10/2020
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Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen ...

The corona pandemic leaves substantial marks in the German economy and its impact is more persistent than assumed in spring. ...

Economic Outlook

Bumpy ride back to normal

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2020
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Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll ...

KKB 70: Economic output in the Euro area declined by 15 percent in the first half of 2020. In the meantime, member states have...

Working Paper

Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment

Kiel Working Papers
08/2020
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Wolfgang Lechthaler, Mewael F. Tesfaselassie

We embed human capital-based endogenous growth into a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and...

Working Paper

Reliable Real-time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter

Kiel Working Papers
06/2020
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Josefine Quast, Maik Wolters

We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time...

Journal Article

The Inherent Benefit of Monetary Unions

Journal of Monetary Economics
05/2020
Dominik Groll, Tommaso Monacelli

If the monetary authority lacks commitment, a monetary union can dominate flexible exchange rates. With forward-looking staggered...

Economic Outlook

Outlook for the World Economy and the German Economy: Interim Forecast Spring 2020

Kiel Policy Briefs
05/2020
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Klaus-Jürgen Gern ...

Kiel Policy Brief Special Corona-Update 3: Over the past months, the Covid-19 pandemic has progressively affected economic activity...

Working Paper

Extreme weather events and economic activity: The case of low water levels on the Rhine river

Kiel Working Papers
04/2020
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Martin Ademmer, Nils Jannsen, Saskia Mösle

In this paper, we exploit exogenous variation in navigability of the Rhine river to analyze the impact of weather-related supply...

Policy Article

Germany's economy in times of the Corona Lockdown

Kiel Policy Briefs
04/2020
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Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow

Kiel Policy Brief Special Corona-Update 1: In times of a sudden crisis, such as the coronavirus, official statistics cannot cope with...

Policy Article

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy —Survey-based Evidence from Free Zones

Kiel Policy Briefs
04/2020
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Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Saskia Mösle

Kiel Policy Brief No. 139: In cooperation with the World Free Zones Organization, the IfW Kiel has conducted a survey among special...

Policy Article

Stabilization policy in times of Corona

Kiel Policy Briefs
04/2020
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Stefan Kooths, Gabriel Felbermayr

Kiel Policy Brief No. 138: The corona pandemic causes a global interaction shock that puts the world economy under massive stress....

Economic Outlook

Joint Economic Forecast 1/20: Economy in Shock – Fiscal Policy to Counteract

Joint Economic Forecast
04/2020
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Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen ...

The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year. ...

Economic Outlook

Euro area faces recession

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
03/2020
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Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll ...

KKB 64: The spread of the corona virus poses major challenges for the euro area economy. Sentiment indicators for February still point...

Economic Outlook

Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Winter 2019/2020

Euroframe Forecast
02/2020
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Klaus-Jürgen Gern

This EUROFRAME Report presents an assessment of the economic outlook for 2020 and 2021 focused on the euro area based on a synopsis of...

Working Paper

Investment Tax Incentives and Their Big Time-to-Build Fiscal Multiplier

Kiel Working Papers
11/2019
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Dimitrios Bermperoglou, Yota Deli, Sarantis Kalyvitis

This paper studies how investment tax incentives stimulate output in a medium-scale DSGE model, which allows for a variety of fiscal...

Economic Outlook

Joint Economic Forecast 2/19:

Joint Economic Forecast
10/2019
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Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen ...

Journal Article

Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?

International Journal of Central Banking
10/2019
Nils Jannsen, Galina Potjagailo, Maik Wolters

The effects of monetary policy during financial crises differ substantially from those in normal times. Using a panel VAR for 20...

Economic Outlook

Euro area economy robust, but with low momentum

Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Euro Area
09/2019
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Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll ...

KKB 58: The euro area economy is currently expanding at a moderate pace. The underlying momentum has slowed noticeably since early...

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